ReliefWeb

Terrorism, climate change, war and poverty are all high on the list of most significant threats to humanity. But their impact may be eclipsed by one threat that generally attracts far less attention. The next “Big One” may not refer to a bomb or natural disaster. Instead, a viral pandemic could potentially impact millions of lives across the world. The sudden spread of a deadly virus would create an urgent need for life-saving vaccines and treatments. Are we prepared to respond?

The last two decades, alone, show the potential for viruses to spread globally. In 2003, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) spread to more than two dozen countries around the world before the global outbreak was contained. In 2009, the H1N1 virus, commonly called the Swine Flu spread quickly across the United States and other nations. In 2012, the Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) spread globally with thousands of infections and hundreds of deaths. The Ebola virus claimed more than 11,000 lives between 2014 and 2015.

The spread of disease generally falls into one of two categories: epidemic or pandemic. Epidemic refers to an outbreak of disease in a geographic area where it is typically not prevalent. Pandemic refers to the spread of disease across a country, continent or the world. In either case, a coordinated response from a number of different sectors is needed contain the outbreak from spreading. A recent article from MPH@GW, the online MPH program from the George Washington University identifies the following stakeholders needed to prevent or contain an outbreak:

The spread of disease generally falls into one of two categories: epidemic or pandemic. Epidemic refers to an outbreak of disease in a geographic area where it is typically not prevalent. Pandemic refers to the spread of disease across a country, continent or the world. In either case, a coordinated response from a number of different sectors is needed contain the outbreak from spreading. A recent article from MPH@GW, the online MPH program from the George Washington University identifies the following stakeholders needed to prevent or contain an outbreak:

• Health professionals
• Pharmaceutical industry and drug manufacturers
• Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)
• Academia
• Government agencies
• Media
• Individuals and communities

Unfortunately, due to the number of stakeholders involved and the complexity of their roles in fighting disease, developing new vaccines takes time and money. In addition, the urgency needed to contain a potential pandemic can pull resources away from other global health priorities. For example, the Ebola outbreak in West Africa sparked an international effort for treatment as the virus spread across nations. But the sudden spotlight on finding a vaccine pulled resources away from immunization efforts for other serious conditions — some of which already have vaccines.

Profit and panic often combine to create an unbalanced response. A potential vaccine or treatment for the Zika virus could create a $1 billion market for the drug industry. Meanwhile, pictures of babies born with microcephaly, often resulting from a pregnant woman contracting Zika, create such an overwhelming public concern that more prevalent diseases are overshadowed. By numbers alone, the flu is a far greater risk than Zika. But the hyper focus on Zika may distract some from getting their flu shots.

Still, stakeholders must continuously monitor the global landscape to identify and predict the next “Big One” in hopes of minimizing its impact. The World Health Organization’s Initiative for Vaccine Research (IVR) facilitates early-stage research and development on diseases for which there are no effective vaccines. IVR focuses on low- and middle-income countries that may not otherwise have the resources to address an epidemic or pandemic.

We’ve had some success in mitigating global outbreaks for strains of diseases that already exist. Bird flu and swine flu are mutations of existing influenza viruses that we have addressed. Any new pandemic influenza vaccine will take about four to six months to create and distribute. So as long as we can minimize transmission, we can likely limit or prevent the pandemic.

But emerging infectious diseases, or those diseases that have never been recognized, pose a more significant risk. We don’t know how this new disease will transmit. We don’t know how it might mutate. We don’t know how long it will take to create and distribute a vaccine. Despite our best preparations, these unknowns will make it difficult to respond to the next potential pandemic.