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SUMMARY
The bulk of Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for most of the period October to December (OND) 2017 and normal to above-normal rainfall for the January to March (JFM) 2018. However, northernmost Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), northern Tanzania, the islands states, eastern-most Madagascar and the south-eastern contiguous SADC region are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall throughout the 2017/18 rainy season.
THE TWENTY FIRST ANNUAL SOUTHERN AFRICA REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM
The Twenty First Annual Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-21) was held in Gaborone, Botswana 23 to 25 August 2017 to present a consensus outlook for the 2017/2018 rainfall season over the SADC region. Climate scientists from the SADC National Meteorological and/or Hydrological Services (NMHSs), the SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) formulated this Outlook. Additional inputs were acquired from other global climate prediction centres namely, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Beijing Climate Center (BCC), Météo-France and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (BoM), Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Korea Meteorological Agency, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and UK Met Office. This Outlook covers the major rainfall season from October 2017 to March 2018. The Outlook is presented in overlapping three-monthly periods as follows: October-November-December (OND);
November-December-January (NDJ); December-January-February (DJF); and JanuaryFebruary-March (JFM)
This Outlook is relevant only to seasonal (overlapping three-monthly) time-scales and relatively large areas and may not fully account for all factors that influence regional and national climate variability, such as local and month-to-month variations (intra-seasonal).
Users are strongly advised to contact the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for interpretation of this Outlook, additional guidance and updates.