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Statement from The Twenty First Annual Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Sarcof-21) Mid-Season Review And Update, SADC Headquarters, Gaborone, Botswana, 5 – 8 December 2017

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The bulk of Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period January to May 2018. However, the extreme western part of Angola, Namibia, south-western part of South Africa, extreme northwest of DRC and eastern Madagascar are more likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for some of the seasons.

THE TWENTY FIRST ANNUAL SOUTHERN AFRICA REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM MID-SEASON REVIEW AND UPDATE

The Twenty first Annual Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-21) midseason review was held in Gaborone, Botswana 5 to 8 December 2017 to present a consensus outlook update for the 2017/2018 rainfall season over the SADC region. Climate scientists from the SADC National Meteorological and/or Hydrological Services (NMHSs), the SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) formulated this update. Additional inputs were acquired from other global climate prediction centres namely, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Beijing Climate Center (BCC), Météo-France and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (BoM), Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Korea Meteorological Agency, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and UK Met Office. This update covers the rainfall season from January to May 2018. The outlooks are presented in overlapping three-monthly periods as follows: January-February-March (JFM); February-March-April (FMA); March-April-May (MAM).

This Outlook is relevant only to seasonal (overlapping three-monthly) time-scales and relatively large areas and may not fully account for all factors that influence regional and national climate variability, such as local and month-to-month variations (intra-seasonal).

Users are strongly advised to contact the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for interpretation of this Outlook, additional guidance and updates.