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Southeast Asia: Historical El Niño-Related Crop Yield Impact

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The world’s major meteorological organizations have issued alerts about the increasing probability of an El Niño event. Sea-surface temperatures (SST) from March through May have begun to rise in the eastern and central Pacific ocean. In early June, climate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported a 70-percent chance of El Niño forming this summer. Historically, Southeast Asian countries see significant climate-related problems with El Niños, with India, Indonesia, Philippines, and Australia often experiencing deficient rainfall or drought. Given the region’s extremely large population, its significant economic dependence on agriculture, and the preponderance of small-scale subsistence farms , any potential climatic threats to agricultural yields may have implications for regional food security. The early warning provided by climate scientists this year enabled governments throughout the region to discuss and implement El Niño-related contingency plans. This article describes the impact that El Ninos have had on major crop production in the region, focusing on the primary foodgrain, feedgrain, and oilseed crops (rice, corn, and palm oil).