Seasonal and subseasonal models continue to indicate a generally wet summer across the Sahel, southern Sahara, northeastern Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border, with above-normal rainfall expected from July through September. A gradual drying trend is anticipated from October onward, with dry conditions returning across most areas by November. However, some residual moisture may persist into December in western Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, and parts of Yemen and Oman. These rainfall patterns are likely to support favorable locust breeding conditions through the summer and early autumn, particularly in the Sahel and Sudan. The forecasted summer rains are being driven by persistent La Niña-like conditions, while the expected drying in autumn aligns with projections for the development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole.
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