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Executive Summary

This technical paper provides evidence-based estimates of the likelihood of disaster-induced displacement in Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. It attempts to better quantify human displacement risk. It brings together data from several sources – notably the Global Assessment Reports (GARs) and the Asia-Pacific Disaster Report of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), national disaster loss inventory databases (DesInventar) and the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre’s (IDMC) Global Estimates – in order to better quantify human displacement risk. Applying a probabilistic risk model, it is one of the first attempts to assess how many people are at risk of being displaced by natural hazard-related disasters. It is the first attempt to do so for South-East Asia.

A new way of thinking

The study reflects an awareness of the need to see disasters as primarily social, rather than natural, phenomena. This view acknowledges the fact that humans can act and take decisions to reduce the likelihood of a disaster occurring or, at the very least, to reduce their impacts and the levels of loss and damage associated with them. Disasters are thus no longer being perceived as ‘natural’ or ‘acts of God’ but instead as something over which humans exert influence and can therefore prevent.

This reconceptualisation of disasters signifies a shift from a retrospective, post-disaster approach to an anticipatory way of thinking about and confronting disasters. This conceptual development was reflected in a public policy objective: disaster risk reduction (DRR). Strengthening DRR became a global priority in the 1990s, the United Nations’ International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction. Following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, UN Member States adopted the 2005 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), a ten-year plan endorsed by the UN General Assembly which aims to reduce the risk of disasters globally. The objectives codified in the HFA are currently being updated in advance of a global conference scheduled for March 2015 in Sendai, Japan, at which Member States will renew their commitment to DRR. One important outcome of the HFA process is awareness that without ability to measure it is not possible to know if disaster risk has been reduced.

In the context of disasters, displacement includes all forced population movements resulting from the immediate threat of, or actual, disaster situation regardless of length of time displaced, distance moved from place of origin and subsequent patterns of movement, including back to place of origin or re-settlement elsewhere. Based upon existing information, and notwithstanding some notable exceptions, the vast majority of people displaced by disasters are assumed to remain within their country of residence, rather than to cross internationally recognised borders to find refuge.

Displacement is a disaster impact that is largely determined by the underlying vulnerability of people to shocks or stresses that compel them to leave their homes and livelihoods just to survive. The number of people displaced is, of course, related to the magnitude and frequency of extreme hazard events. The most significant factors are those that leave exposed and vulnerable communities without the means to be resilient in the face of such hazards.

Informed by this anticipatory way of thinking about disasters, the approach used in this study departs from most existing analyses in two ways.

First, while the efforts of many governments and other actors continue to emphasise post-disaster and post-displacement response and recovery this analysis is based on probabilistic risk modelling. This uses historical information available about past disasters to provide estimates that may inform policy and action to ideally prevent, or at least to prepare for, displacement before a disaster occurs.

Second, while displacement and disasters have traditionally been associated with humanitarian relief and human rights-based protection this study analyses disaster-induced displacement in the language of the disaster risk reduction and disaster risk management communities. In sum, this study attempts to provide entry points for humanitarian and protection actors while presenting information aimed at those responsible for disaster risk reduction and risk management and development.

Regional context

The 11 countries included in this study—ASEAN Member States plus China—account for approximately 28 per cent of the entire global population. Over the last six decades, the population of these 11 countries has grown and become increasingly urban. At least half the population of Brunei, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are now estimated to reside in urban areas.
While the region’s population growth rate is slowing, urbanisation will continue apace: by 2050 the majority of the population of every country but Cambodia is expected to reside in urban centres.

South-East Asia’s population growth is mirrored by economic growth which has concentrated people and economic activities in urban areas, often located in hazard-prone areas. Consequently, people and settlements in the region are exposed to multiple hazards, such as cyclones, floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcanoes and rain- and earthquake-triggered landslides.
Analysing these 11 countries reveals striking contrasts.

Brunei and Singapore are both high-income countries with small territories and populations concentrated in urban areas. Brunei and Singapore have very little displacement risk and a high capacity to manage it.

By contrast, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and the Philippines are lower-income countries with large rural populations. They have much more risk and low capacity to manage it. China itself is a study in contrasts with several large urban areas as well as more than half a billion mostly poor people residing in rural areas.

Key Findings:

In the last six years along, nearly 30 million people have been displaced in the countries included in this study—18 per cent of the global total. Two countries in particular, China and the Philippines, account for a disproportionate share of the world’s disaster-related displacement: more than eight million Chinese and half a million Filipinos are at risk of being displaced every year.

In South-East Asia, the risk of being displaced in relation to disasters is increasing, and it has been growing even faster than the population growth rate. Compared to the past, there are more people living in hazard prone areas than before, often in cities. Meanwhile, governments have not been able to reduce the vulnerability of these people enough to offset this increasing exposure.
Relative to the size of each country’s population, displacement risk is unevenly distributed within the region.

In Singapore, a high income country, the risk of being displaced in a disaster is one in a million. By contrast for every million Laotians and Filipinos that risk is more than 7,000 and 6,000 times higher, respectively. Laotians and Filipinos are also more than ten times more likely to be displaced than Indonesians, who are also exposed to multiple geophysical and weather-related hazards.
Wealth alone does not explain vulnerability. Per capita income in China is two to three times higher than in Vietnam.

Vietnam’s exposed population is ten times more vulnerable to hazards than that of China. Regardless of a country’s wealth, governments can begin reducing vulnerability through smarter urban development and by enforcing building codes.

The majority of disaster spending is still being used to respond to – rather than to prevent – disasters. Spending on disaster response is less cost-effective than investments to reduce disaster risks and disaster relief does not always reach people who are displaced with family or friends rather than in official shelters or evacuation centres.

IDMC has not found evidence of significant cross-border displacement in relation to disasters within this region. The presence of transboundary hazards, such as riverine floods, means there is a risk of cross-border displacement for populations living and working along these borders.
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