This is the fourth edition of the Regional Outlook. This report presents a three-month trend analysis of humanitarian challenges in the Horn of Africa and Great Lakes region, and an outlook for July-September 2016. The document has been developed with humanitarian and development partners to inform preparedness, early action and advocacy efforts, and to mitigate and manage humanitarian risk in the Horn of Africa and Great Lakes region. Countries covered in this region are: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda.
This is also a special World Humanitarian Summit (WHS) edition of the Humanitarian Outlook. In May 2016, 9,000 participants representing governments, businesses, aid organizations, civil society, affected communities, youth and others, came together in Istanbul to confront the magnitude of the humanitarian challenges facing humanity. In order to forward this agenda, this report is organized along the lines of the five Core Commitments to deliver the Secretary-General’s Agenda for Humanity1. In addition the report also separately focuses on gender equality - Core Responsibility Two calls on us to “uphold the norms that safeguard humanity, including eradicating sexual and gender-based violence and treat survivors with dignity” while Core Responsibility Three reminds us to “leave no one behind, including through empowering and protecting women and girls.” This report applies the lessons and commitments of the World Humanitarian Summit and outlines examples of good practice in the Great Lakes and Horn of Africa region. Furthermore, it explores how partners can engage with the commitments made at the WHS moving forward.
KEY HUMANITARIAN RISKS
1.- Conflict is expected to increase, as a combination of an escalation of existing conflicts – breakdown of fragile peace in South Sudan, the gradual withdrawal of regional troops from AMISOM in Somalia, continued spread of violence in Burundi – as well as election related violence in Kenya and DRC.
2.- The number of IDPs and refugees is expected to rise, in particular as a result of the ongoing crisis in South Sudan, leading to an increase in humanitarian need. The population of South Sudanese refugees in the region could pass the 1 million mark this year if current cross-border displacement trends continue. The threat of forcible returns of Somali refugees also continues to be of concern.
3.- While the El Niño has unwound the humanitarian impact will persist for the coming few months.
Food prices in Eastern Africa have increased substantially and are the highest globally, undermining the purchasing power and reducing access to food. The probability of a La Niña climatic event has been revised downward but still stands at 60%. Historic evidence suggests that the humanitarian impact of a La Niña following an El Niño is higher as coping capacities have been eroded.
4.- The number of people in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) food insecurity or in need of emergency food assistance in the region currently stands at 23.9 million (excluding DRC), representing more than 20 per cent increase from the previous reporting period. This increase is mainly due to a rapidly deteriorating food security situation in Sudan, South Sudan and Burundi.
5.- Communicable diseases on the rise. There has been an increase in the incidence water-borne diseases (e.g. cholera Tanzania and South Sudan and AWD in Ethiopia) and vector-borne disease outbreaks (e.g. malaria in Burundi and South Sudan). The outbreak of Yellow Fever in Angola has spread to DRC and Uganda, and represents a continental threat. There has been a disruption to health services due to flooding. Without the establishment of good country and cross-border monitoring and response systems, there is a risk of a major disease outbreak.
6.- Humanitarian and civil society space is shrinking across the region and insecurity and bureaucratic impediments are a key constraint to reaching those most in need.
7.- While humanitarian needs are increasing, humanitarian funding, especially for regional refugee appeals, is falling behind. Overall $ 6.6 billion is required of which 37 per cent is funded.
- UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
- To learn more about OCHA's activities, please visit https://www.unocha.org/.