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General Comments
One of the main objectives of a post-disaster assessment is to estimate the impact of the event on overall socio-economic development in the affected country or area. To estimate total disaster impact, two components are normally estimated: first, the economic impact that represents the consequences of the destruction of physical assets and of the changes in production flows arising from the event that triggered the disaster, on overall economic conditions and performance; second, the impact on human development that represents the consequences of the disruption of the population´s normal livelihoods, employment and income as well as access to basic services of health and education. A subsequent estimation of post-disaster financial requirements to achieve recovery and reconstruction is possible only after disaster impact has been determined.
One of the main features of disaster impact assessment involves the estimation of the disruptions caused by the disaster on the macroeconomic performance of the affected country or area. This is usually made in comparison to the expected or foreseen performance of the main macroeconomic variables of the country or area in the absence of a disaster, by superimposing into it the estimated isolated effects of the disaster on the destruction of physical assets and on the resulting changes in the flows of production of goods and services. Based on such projections of post-disaster macroeconomic performance, a set of activities aimed at restoring pre-disaster economic performance and including disaster-resilient reconstruction standards may be designed, constituting a strategy for recovery and reconstruction.
In addition to the above, and following recent universal trends, efforts aimed at measuring negative disaster impact on human development have been started. Making use of the conceptual notions of human development and its components, introduced by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in the latter part of the 20th century, it is also possible to estimate the possible negative impact of disasters on selected human-related development indicators that measure personal income, living conditions, and health and education access. In addition, potential setbacks to the achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) caused by disasters provide another possible measure of the human development impact of disasters. Once disaster impact on human development is quantified, it is possible to estimate the financial requirements to achieve human development recovery after disasters.
The following section of the PDNA Handbook describes the manner in which macroeconomic disaster impact may be estimated on the basis of a quantification of the destruction of assets and disruption of socio-economic activities caused by disasters of any kind and origin. A separate section describing the methodology to estimate disaster impact on human development will be added later. In turn, the estimation of disaster impact leads to the subsequent estimation of the financial requirements or needs to achieve post-disaster economic recovery and disaster-resilient reconstruction.
It may not be necessarily evident to the reader that in order to estimate overall disaster impact at both macroeconomic and human development levels, it is essential that post-disaster assessments be conducted on a sectoral fashion, covering all institutional social and economic sectors of activity that are regularly measured in each country of the world, and using a standard assessment methodology to enable a valid aggregation of sectoral results to obtain the overall view of disaster impact for the entire affected country or area. Furthermore, it is essential for the reader and user of the PDNA Guidelines to understand that the quantitative estimation of disaster impact must be evidence-based in order to satisfy the normal reliability requirements of the agency or agencies that are to provide the required financial resources to achieve recovery and reconstruction after a disaster, be they of national or international scope.
At the national level, this task will likely fall within the purview of the Ministry of Finance and of Economic Development Planning, while any of numerous international organisations and friendly donor government organisations may decide on the type and quantity of post-disaster assistance and financing to be provided.