On Our Radar scans conflicts and crises around the globe every week and features some of the hotspots Crisis Group’s analysts are closely watching. Whether an under-reported trend or a headline-grabbing development, our field experts explain why it matters or what should be done.
20 December 2024
RUSSIA-UKRAINE The Russian security services said Wednesday they had arrested an Uzbek national in connection with Tuesday’s assassination of Igor Kirillov, a lieutenant general in charge of the Russian army’s chemical weapons division, in Moscow. Ukrainian intelligence has claimed responsibility for the killing, calling Kirillov a “legitimate target” because he allegedly ordered use of a proscribed choking agent on a battlefield in Ukraine. The Kremlin labelled the assassination a “terrorist act”. Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says it is the latest in a series of hits on prominent Russians and Ukrainian defectors since Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Killing a top general in the Russian capital takes this apparent campaign to a new level.
SYRIA Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the former rebel group that spearheaded the offensive ousting Bashar al-Assad’s regime, announced Tuesday it would dissolve its armed wing and other militias, fusing them into a new national army. Crisis Group expert Nanar Hawach says it is an important step toward unifying post-Assad Syria. But other factors threaten to derail this project. Turkish-backed militias are fighting Kurdish-led forces in the north east. Gunmen have targeted minorities in Hama, Homs and Latakia with killings, looting and harassment. Badly needed aid is held up by U.S. sanctions. ISIS cells lurk in the desert. Outside actors should help HTS seize the opportunity that still exists: most Syrians remain hopeful about the new leadership and eager to cooperate in keeping the country on a peaceful trajectory.
WEST AFRICA At Sunday’s Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) summit, the regional bloc’s leaders approved the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, granting them a six-month grace period to reconsider their decision to quit. The three countries had announced they would depart ECOWAS in January, following months of tensions over the organisation’s statement that it might use force to reinstate Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum, who was deposed in a July 2023 coup. They subsequently formed their own grouping, the Alliance of Sahel States. Both sides made concessions, with the three Sahelian governments promising a clean exit, including continued visa-free travel for ECOWAS member state citizens. Crisis Group expert Rinaldo Depagne says the sides should now work on negotiating a smooth separation that minimises the withdrawal’s impact on the region’s people.
13 December 2024
HAITI Around 180 mostly elderly people were killed in Port-au-Prince’s Cité Soleil slum over the weekend. The killings were reportedly ordered by criminal gang leader Micanor Altès, following advice from a local Vodou priest who blamed the community’s older residents for his son’s illness. Crisis Group expert Diego Da Rin says the massacre, the second in two months at the gangs’ hands, exposes the shortcomings of the underfunded Kenya-led multinational security mission, which has deployed fewer than 20 per cent of its intended personnel. Haiti’s foreign partners should immediately increase their financial contributions to strengthen the mission so that it can more effectively counter the gangs’ pervasive violence.
SUDAN A Tuesday airstrike by the Sudanese army killed at least 127 people in North Darfur’s Kabkabiya town, while the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has been shelling Zamzam, a camp for displaced people. Now in its twentieth month, the war in Sudan has killed tens of thousands and uprooted over 11 million, with both sides having committed atrocities against civilians (though both deny it). Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael notes that as the war goes on, civilians are increasingly being killed indiscriminately. African and other foreign capitals must urgently act to de-escalate the fighting, revive ceasefire efforts and work toward restoring peace in Sudan.
TAIWAN STRAIT Taiwan raised its alert level to “high” Monday as China deployed almost 90 warships and coast guard vessels in waters near the island, in what reportedly was its largest naval operation since 1996. Taipei also reported Wednesday that 53 Chinese military aircraft had flown around the island, with 23 of them crossing the Taiwan Strait’s unofficial median line. Crisis Group experts Huong Le Thu and Ali Wyne say China may have intended to warn Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te about his recent diplomatic rapprochements with Pacific nations and to nudge U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to scale back U.S. military support for Taiwan. Beijing, Taipei and Washington should undertake anew to uphold a status quo that has kept cross-strait tensions contained for 45 years.
6 December 2024
GAZA The UN Relief and Works Agency announced Sunday it was suspending aid deliveries to southern Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing, citing looting by criminal gangs and the Israeli army’s failure to ensure security. This decision comes at a moment when aid supplies are at critically low levels, exacerbating widespread starvation, amid continued Israeli bombardment of the strip. Meanwhile, Egypt is hosting fresh reconciliation talks between Hamas and Fatah, and Qatar has renewed its efforts to mediate a ceasefire, with reports suggesting that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is pushing for a deal before his January inauguration. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says the acceleration of these two negotiation tracks is a positive sign, but that substantial pressure is still needed from Washington and others to secure a ceasefire and stem Gaza’s humanitarian crisis.
SOUTH KOREA President Yoon Suk-yeol faces an impeachment vote and a police investigation for alleged insurrection after his declaration of martial law Tuesday. Yoon justified the move by accusing the opposition of paralysing the government and sympathising with North Korea. His decision was overruled only hours later by a bipartisan group of South Korean lawmakers who defied a military blockade of the parliament building to cast their votes. Crisis Group expert Chris Green says Yoon’s high-stakes gambit failed because of the resilience of South Korea’s political institutions and public support for them. Looking ahead, the crisis stemming from his actions will likely test Seoul’s relations with Washington and other partners at a time of heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula.
SOUTH SUDAN Kenya resumed hosting talks between the South Sudanese coalition government and exiled opposition groups Wednesday. This dialogue had stalled in July. The negotiations aim to complement the 2018 peace accord, which established a transitional period – extended by two years in September – designed to pave the way for elections. The opposition groups now speaking with Juba were not party to that deal. Crisis Group expert Daniel Akech says the talks in Nairobi alone will not fully address the complex challenges facing South Sudan’s government. Key issues include President Salva Kiir’s increasingly unstable network of political alliances and the disruption of vital oil exports and trade caused by the war in neighbouring Sudan, which has worsened South Sudan’s hunger crisis and further weakened its security sector.
29 November 2024
CLIMATE COP29, the UN’s flagship annual climate conference, held this year in Baku, Azerbaijan, featured a Peace Day on 15 November, launching a Climate and Peace initiative that drew mixed reactions. Nations such as Egypt, Germany, Uganda and the UK backed the proposal, while others expressed reservations. The initiative focuses on climate financing for conflict-affected countries, as well as climate-induced migration, building on momentum generated at COP28 in 2024. Nevertheless, says Crisis Group expert Nazanine Moshiri, discussions about connections between climate change and deadly conflict remained sidelined from the formal negotiations. The climate financing pledges of $300 billion per year also fell short of the trillions needed to address the scale of the crisis in the hardest-hit regions.
MYANMARKarim Khan, prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, announced Wednesday that he is seeking an arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing, commander-in-chief of the Myanmar military, in connection with the violent expulsion of hundreds of thousands of Rohingya from Rakhine State in 2017. The symbolism is powerful, says Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey: Khan has accused the general of crimes against humanity at a time when the military is perpetrating further such crimes trying to crush resistance to the 2021 coup. Should the court issue a warrant, it may be difficult to enforce, as Min Aung Hlaing typically travels only to countries that would not arrest him. Yet the prospect of future arrest could affect Myanmar’s conflict, either by giving the general another reason to fight to the end or by motivating him to insist on immunity as part of any political transition.
UKRAINE Russian forces on the Donetsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia fronts appear to be advancing faster than at any time since the early days of the all-out invasion in 2022. Crisis Group expert Simon Schlegel says Russia’s successes stem from combined use of glide bombs and small-scale infantry movements, which have proven more effective than the large frontal assaults it formerly relied upon. The Ukrainian army, meanwhile, is struggling to fill its ranks. Last week’s go-ahead for Kyiv to fire Western-supplied missiles deep into Russia will help Ukraine do damage in the Russian rear, but it is unlikely to change the military balance.
15 November 2024
GAZAThe UN’s Integrated Food Security Phase Classification warned that action is needed in “days, not weeks” to stave off famine in the northern part of the besieged strip, where the Israeli military is conducting intensive operations. Relief agencies report that aid deliveries have significantly decreased over the last month. Nevertheless, and despite having issued a letter on 13 October saying it might reconsider sending arms to Israel if aid flows did not increase within 30 days, the Biden administration announced Tuesday it would not impose limits on those transfers. Meanwhile, Qatar said it would suspend its mediation efforts until Israel and Hamas demonstrate “willingness and seriousness” about negotiations to end the war. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says Israel will read Washington’s refusal to use its leverage as licence to continue its devastating war in Gaza. The Biden administration must exert real pressure in its final weeks to pursue a ceasefire and stem the humanitarian crisis.
HAITIHaiti’s Transitional Presidential Council Sunday dismissed Prime Minister Garry Conille, replacing him with businessman and former senate candidate Didier Fils-Aimé. Political tensions had escalated after Conille demanded the removal of three council members accused of corruption, while the council itself called on him to reform his cabinet. Following Conille’s ouster, criminal gangs ramped up attacks in the capital Port-au-Prince and reportedly shot at three airliners, prompting the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration Tuesday to impose a month-long ban on U.S. commercial flights to Haiti. Crisis Group expert Diego Da Rin says gangs are exploiting the political crisis to tighten their grip on the country. Outside powers need to act urgently to ensure the multinational security mission deployed to the country has the means necessary to rein in the spiralling violence.
SOMALILANDSomaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but has not been internationally recognised, held long-awaited presidential and political party elections Wednesday. Crisis Group expert Omar Mahmood says the vote proceeded smoothly, with just a few reported disruptions, despite heightened political tensions related to the polls’ two-year delay. Results are pending. Whatever the outcome, it will likely have regional ramifications as the elections come in the wake of Somaliland’s early 2024 agreement with Ethiopia to swap territory for recognition, which has strained relations with Somalia. The incoming administration will also need to address an unresolved conflict involving the Dhulbahante community in the Sool region, where heavy fighting occurred in 2023.
9 November 2024
CHAD The Chadian authorities announced Sunday that they were considering withdrawing Chad’s contingent from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), which fights Islamist militants in the Sahel, citing a lack of regional coordination. The decision follows a Boko Haram attack that killed at least 40 Chadian soldiers in Lake Chad province in late October. Crisis Group expert Fulbert Ngodji says the announcement is a sign of frustration on the part of the Chadian government, which feels it is on its own against the Islamist group. If Chad goes ahead with the withdrawal, it will severely weaken the MNJTF, which is already struggling with divergent priorities among its members, and further test the limits of cooperation against transnational jihadist threats.
LEBANON A series of Israeli strikes Wednesday in eastern Lebanon killed at least 40 people, as Israel once more intensified bombardment of Shiite-majority areas. This week’s assaults, which also targeted southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs, add to Lebanon’s displacement crisis, with well over one million people forced from their homes. Crisis Group expert David Wood says Israel lacks a clear plan for achieving lasting security gains with its Lebanon campaign, as Hizbollah continues to launch missile and drone attacks at Israel.
UNITED STATES Republican Donald Trump won a second term as U.S. president Tuesday, defeating the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. The election also saw Republicans regain control of the U.S. Senate and positioned them to retain a slim majority in the House of Representatives. Crisis Group expert Michael Wahid Hanna says Trump’s return to the White House could have far-reaching implications for U.S. policy around the world. Washington may curb its support for Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s invasion, as well as its already limited efforts to restrain Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon. Tensions with China in the Indo-Pacific may rise. Overall, a more erratic and transactional Washington may strain longstanding U.S. alliances.
1 November 2024
GAZAIsrael’s offensive in northern Gaza, now in its third week, shows no sign of slowing. An airstrike on a residential building in Beit Lahia killed over 90 on Tuesday. According to Gazan authorities, around 100,000 people in Jabalya, Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun are trapped in the fighting without food or medical supplies. Crisis Group expert Tahani Mustafa says whatever happens in next week’s U.S. election, Washington should start using its leverage with Israel, including withholding military aid, to press for a halt to the offensive and restoration of humanitarian access. More broadly, a ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange deal remain the best way to end the humanitarian disaster in Gaza and free the hostages held there.
IRAN-ISRAEL Israel conducted airstrikes on Iranian air defence systems and weapons production facilities last weekend in retaliation for Iran’s 1 October ballistic missile attack on Israel. Iranian officials have downplayed the damage while warning of “bitter consequences”. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says Tehran would be at a distinct disadvantage in the event of further hostilities, due to the exposure of its defensive vulnerabilities and its possibly weakened capacity to replenish offensive stores, compounded by Israel’s continued degradation of Hizbollah’s capabilities in Lebanon. The U.S. presidential election likely also looms large in Iran’s calculations as it weighs a response.
SUDANThe war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is escalating, particularly in Darfur and Khartoum, as the rainy season ends. The UN has warned of a worsening humanitarian crisis, with over 14 million people displaced. A recent RSF attack killed more than 120 people in Gezira state and the army continued bombing villages in Darfur. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says the warring parties are targeting civilians with growing impunity, while the expanding involvement of militias in the conflict has heightened intercommunal tensions. The world should act more urgently to end the fighting and address the humanitarian disaster.