The Market Monitor - Trends and impacts of staple food prices in vulnerable countries, Issue 36 - July 2017

Report
from World Food Programme
Published on 31 Jul 2017 View Original

This bulletin examines trends in staple food and fuel prices, the cost of the basic food basket and consumer price indices for 69 countries in the second quarter of 2017 (April to June). The maps on pages 6–7 provide impact analysis dis-aggregated to sub-national level.

Global Highlights

  • The Q2 average of the FAO global food price index is 9 percent higher than in Q2-2016. The FAO cereal price index rose by 7 percent over the previous quarter, particularly because of price increases for wheat and rice.
  • The real price of wheat rose by 3 percent compared with the previous quarter. Despite increases in 2017 – especially recently – prices are still at low levels thanks to abundant world supplies.
  • The real price of maize dropped 10 percent in Q2-2017 compared with the same period in 2016. Because of bumper harvests in the southern hemisphere, supplies are ample and markets are expected to remain calm.
  • During Q2-2017, the real price of rice increased by 11 percent compared with Q1-2017. Although prices are 1 percent lower than in Q2-2016, strong international demand has pushed prices up in the past quarter.
  • The real price of crude oil decreased an average 4 percent in Q2-2017 and is still at low levels; it is, however, 7 percent higher than in Q2-2016.
  • The cost of the basic food basket increased severely (>10%) in Q2-2017 in three countries: Congo, Niger and Uganda. High increases (5–10%) were seen in Central African Republic, Chad, Guinea, Iran, Kenya, Kyrgyz Republic, Somalia, Thailand and Ukraine. In the other monitored countries, the change was moderate or low (<5%).
  • Price spikes, as monitored by ALPS, were detected in 23 countries, particularly in Burundi, Congo, Ghana, Haiti, Malawi, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Zambia (see the map below). These spikes indicate Crisis levels for the two most important staples in each country, which could be beans, cassava, maize, milk, millet, oil, rice, sorghum, sweet potatoes or wheat.