The Market Monitor - Trends and impacts of staple food prices in vulnerable countries, Issue 33 I October 2016
This bulletin examines trends in staple food and fuel prices, the cost of the basic food basket and consumer price indices for 70 countries in the third quarter of 2016 (July to September). The maps on pages 6–7 disaggregate the impact analysis to sub-national level.
• During Q3-2016, FAO’s global cereal price index fell a further 9 percent year-on-year. Ample global stocks and record production levels continue to suppress international prices. By contrast, the FAO global food price index continued to rise in Q3-2016 (5% y/y) due to significant price increases, largely for sugar as well as for dairy and oil products.
• The real price of wheat dropped again, falling 19 percent below last year’s level. This is because world supply estimates remain at record levels thanks to excellent yields and production forecasts as well as record ending stocks.
• The real price of maize dropped 10 percent in Q3-2016 compared to the last quarter and the same period in 2015 and is now at levels last seen in 2006. Globally, the 2016/17 maize crop is forecast to be the highest on record with exporter stocks at a near 30-year high.
• During Q3-2016, the real price of rice increased by 5 percent compared to Q2-2016. After peaking this July, prices have been on a downward trend thanks to a global recovery in production, particularly in India.
• The real price of crude oil has remained stable during Q3-2016 and is 9 percent below the level of last year.
• The cost of the basic food basket increased severely (>10%) in Q3-2016 in eight countries: Bangladesh, Burundi, Iran, Madagascar, Mozambique, Niger, north Nigeria and South Sudan. High increases (5–10%) were seen in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kyrgyz Republic, Peru and Uganda. In the other monitored countries, the change was moderate or low (<5%).
• Price spikes, as monitored by ALPS, were detected in 23 countries, particularly in Ghana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria and Zambia (see the map below). These spikes indicate crisis levels for the two most important staples in each country.