The Market Monitor - Trends and impacts of staple food prices in vulnerable countries, Issue 32 I July 2016
During Q2-2016, FAO’s global cereal price index fell by 6 percent year-on-year but it is 3 percent up compared to Q1-2016. The increase is because of rising maize and rice prices. The FAO global food price index has increased and almost returned to the levels of June 2015 (-1%), because prices particularly for sugar and oil increased significantly.
The real price2 of wheat is 20 percent below Q2-2015.
This is because world supplies are at record levels thanks to increased production as well as beginning stocks.
The real price of maize came under pressure in Q2-2016 and rose 7 percent from Q1, although it remained stable compared to 2015. Globally, supplies are abundant but consumption is expected to increase and stocks are estimated to reduce in 2016/17.
During Q2-2016, the real price of rice increased by 9 percent compared to the first quarter because of declining stocks and concerns about production, particularly in Thailand.
The real price of crude oil has increased since February 2016 and is up 34 percent compared to the previous quarter because of decreases in non-OPEC production and various supply outages.
The cost of the basic food basket increased severely (>10%) in Q2-2016 in nine countries:
Ethiopia, Ghana, Lesotho, north Nigeria, South Sudan, Syria, Thailand, Togo and Zimbabwe. High increases (5–10%) were seen in Benin, Cameroon,
Costa Rica, Egypt, Iran, and Mozambique. In the other monitored countries, the change was moderate or low (<5%).
Price spikes, as monitored by ALPS, were detected in 20 countries, particularly in Ghana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria and Zambia (see the map below).3 These spikes indicate crisis levels for the two most important staples in each country, which could be beans, cassava, maize, millet, oil, plantains, rice, sorghum, sweet potatoes, sugar or wheat flour.