The Market Monitor - Trends and impacts of staple food prices in vulnerable countries, Issue 26 - January 2015
· During Q4-2014, FAO’s global cereal price index decreased by 7% year-on-year, but on average, it remained at the level of the previous quarter.
· Real prices of maize have fallen by 14% since Q4-2013. They are up 1% from Q3-2014 after the low in September/October.
· On average, real prices of wheat remained constant between Q3 and Q4-2014. Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are up thanks to increased production and beginning stocks; thus price levels in Q4-2014 are 17% lower than a year ago.
· Real prices of rice fell and they are down an average 2% since Q3-2014. Global export supplies are at a record high, as are consumption projections for 2014/15.
· In Q4-2014, real prices for crude oil dropped by a third compared to the year before.
· Despite the low global price levels for staple foods, the cost of the minimum food basket increased severely (>10%) during Q4-2014 in Armenia, Chad, Guinea-Bissau, the Kyrgyz Republic, South Sudan and Syria. High increases (5-10%) were seen in Burkina Faso, Honduras, Kenya, Liberia and Northern Nigeria.
· Price spikes, as monitored by ALPS (Alert for Price Spikes), are evident in Ethiopia, India, Nepal, South Sudan and Sudan (see the map below). These spikes indicate crisis levels for the most important staple in the country.