Latin America & The Caribbean Weekly Situation Update (22-28 August 2022) as of 29 August 2022

REGIONAL: 2022 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects 2.7 per cent average economic growth in the region for 2022, a considerable setback from the region’s robust economic recovery in 2021.

While growth projections for the region remain gloomy for 2022, ECLAC’s latest report presents a brighter economic outlook compared to early projections in April 2022, when regional growth was expected to be just 1.8 per cent after a rebound of nearly 7 per cent in 2021.

ECLAC forecasts that South America will grow by 2.6 per cent compared to 6.9 per cent in 2021, while Central America and Mexico will expand by 2.5 per cent in 2022 after growing 5.7 per cent last year. Meanwhile, ECLAC projects that the Caribbean – the only subregion expected to grow at a faster rate compared to 2021 – will experience a 4.7 per cent expansion in 2022 when excluding Guyana, whose economy is expected to grow by a whopping 52 per cent on the back of oil exploration. Haiti is the only country in the region projected to experience negative growth this year, with the island nation's gross domestic product expected to shrink by 0.2 per cent.

These modest growth projections place Latin America and the Caribbean among the lowest in the world, as limited dynamism in job creation, falling investment and growing social demands continue to stifle its postCOVID-19 economic recovery. The war in Ukraine is only compounding inflationary pressures already set in motion by the pandemic, generating a cost-of-living crisis that is driving up food and energy prices across the region, dealing yet another devastating blow to livelihoods and food security.

KEY FIGURES

2.7% AVERAGE ECONOMIC GROWTH EXPECTED FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN IN 2022

Source:

• ECLAC

COLOMBIA: CONFINEMENT, DISPLACEMENT AND DISASTERS

In 2022, the humanitarian situation in Colombia continues to worsen as forced displacement and confinement continue to grow in areas where there is a presence, interference or measure of control being exercised by non-state armed groups (NSAGs), a situation aggravated by intensified climatic shocks across the country in recent months.

From January to July 2022, at least 220 emergencies triggered by displacement, confinement and disasters affected around 456,400 people, who required increased humanitarian assistance from partners of the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT). Although HCT partners have scaled-up multi-sectoral response activities, Local Coordination Teams in areas affected by multiple overlapping emergencies report that increasing humanitarian needs continue to outstrip response capacities, while the presence of NSAGs continues to create severe humanitarian access constraints.

Between January and July 2022, the number of families affected by massive displacement events increased by 25 per cent compared to the same period last year, with the south-eastern department of Nariño accounting for nearly 40 per cent all victims of forced displacement in the country. Since 2021, more than 249,000 people have been forcibly displaced across Colombia, a figure that continues to rise unabated.

UN agencies and humanitarian partners are particularly concerned about some 59,800 people displaced since 2021, who have been unable to return to their places of origin due to persistent insecurity in areas with a permanent presence of NSAGs. So far in 2022, at least 6,400 children have been forcibly displaced, exposing them to protection risks, including genderbased and sexual violence, school dropout and deprivations of basic needs in food, health and shelter.

Alongside the rise in forced displacement between January and July, the number of people affected by forced confinement has also risen by a staggering 74 per cent compared to the same period in 2021, with around 77 per cent of the people affected by forced confinement located in the north-eastern department of Chocó.
More than 70 per cent of victims of forced confinement belong to ethnic communities, with indigenous and afro-descendent communities suffering from restrictions on traditional livelihood activities and intimidation of unaccompanied women and girls.

Since June, the La Niña-driven rainy season has significantly intensified, triggering large-scale flooding and landslides across the country’s 32 departments, further complicating an already-complex humanitarian situation. As of August 2022, at least 343,800 people have been affected by natural hazard-related disasters, with higher levels of impact and needs projected in the coming weeks and months as intense rains are likely to persist in certain areas. The Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies warns that there is a 64 per cent chance that La Niña will continue through September, particularly affecting the Andean and Caribbean regions of the country.

KEY FIGURES

456.4K AFFECTED BY CONFINEMENT, DISPLACEMENT AND DISASTERS BETWEEN JANUARY AND JULY 2022

249.1K+ PEOPLE FORCIBLY DISPLACED IN COLOMBIA SINCE 2021

74% INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE AFFECTED BY FORCED CONFINEMENT (JANUARY-JULY 2022) COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD IN 2021

Sources:

• Colombia Humanitarian Country Team
• Monitor-OCHA Colombia
• Special Administrative Unit of Attention and Reparation for Victims (UARIV, for its acronym in Spanish)