Addressing Compounding Risks in Countries Affected by Conflict, Fragility, and Displacement
In crisis-affected countries, the interplay of compounding and cascading effects of climate change-related hazards and conflict often leads to crises in water and food security. As seen in Syria, Somalia, and Sudan, climate change impacts such as floods, droughts, or desertification can weaken agri-ecological systems and reduce economic well-being, while simultaneous conflicts destroy agricultural areas, ecosystems, and infrastructures needed for water and food distribution. Forced displacement dismantles agri-food system livelihoods and reduces food production. Moreover, terrorist groups often use food and water as instruments of war. In the MENA region, several ongoing conflicts are posing catastrophic threats to human security in countries vulnerable to climate change. This leads to competition over increasingly scarce natural resources, breakdowns in governance and the rule of law, and inhibits peacebuilding, conflict resolution and access to justice. In conflict settings, forced displacement further exacerbates vulnerabilities and aggravates protection concerns including food insecurity, loss of livelihoods, and access to essential services, while the increasing politicization of food, land, and water systems threatens agricultural production and food security.
In the region, multiple conflicts have persisted among rising tensions around water scarcity and access, livelihood unsustainability, socio-economic hardships, and political instability that have led to protracted displacement. Adding climate change to this mix can create compounding risks and complex feedback loops that may further exacerbate fragility, conflicts, and displacement. Moreover, prolonged displacement has been leading to communities across the MENA region hosting large numbers of refugees, while struggling with issues of resource scarcity, food security, and pressures on public service provision themselves. It is in these contexts where work across the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus (HDP Nexus) becomes particularly relevant – raising questions on when and how humanitarian assistance should transition into development support in the context of prolonged displacement, and on how host communities and displaced populations can co-create livelihoods that are not only peaceful but also viable, sustainable, and climate resilient.
Peace-Positive Approaches to Climate, Water, and Food Security – How Do We Do This?
The necessity of approaching our climate, water, and food crises in an integrated manner that also accounts for peace, conflict, and social cohesion was highlighted at COP27, which saw the launch of the Climate Responses for Sustaining Peace (CRSP) Initiative. This emphasis was carried forward at COP28, where the Climate, Relief, Recovery, and Peace declaration was launched—the first climate and peace–focused declaration at a COP event. The emphasis on peace and climate will be continued at COP29 in Baku, following on from the Dialogue on Peace and Climate organised by the COP Presidency on June 5 in Bonn.
However, there remain several under-explored and unanswered questions, including:
- What do we really mean when we speak about a peace-positive approach to climate, water, and food security? And how can it be implemented on the ground, particularly in the context of protracted displacement?
- How can natural resource governance arrangements be more responsive to the rights and interests of those who rely on land and water for their lives and livelihoods?
- How can the peace in the HDP Nexus be practically addressed through research, policy, and program design?
- How can host communities and refugees co-generate climate resilient livelihoods in contexts of fragility?
Earlier in June 2024, at the SB60 Bonn Climate Change Conference, CGIAR, UNHCR, and IDLO co-organized a session to shed light on some good and effective practices for inclusive, transformative, people-centred and peace-positive solutions across the HDP Nexus. The session centred on immediately deployable strategies that foster water, food, and human security while enhancing the adaptive capacities of displaced communities. The focus was on what truly works—tangible solutions that can be scaled and replicated in other fragile regions.
Generating Research and Evidence
CGIAR has been at the forefront of addressing the intersecting challenges of climate change, water scarcity, and food security in conflict-affected areas, providing research and evidence to inform policies, programs, and on-the-ground solutions across the MENA region.
Building Resilient Agri-Food Systems in Conflict Affected Areas
CGIAR’s International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) provides science-based solutions for rural resilience in conflict zones. When conflict forced ICARDA’s headquarters out of Aleppo, Syria, the organization safeguarded crucial plant genetic resources by storing seeds in Norway’s Svalbard Global Seed Vault, which later enabled the restoration of gene banks in Lebanon and Morocco. In Yemen, ICARDA has supported farmers facing drought and resource scarcity by introducing drought-tolerant crops and water-efficient irrigation. In Iraq, ICARDA’s efforts to revive traditional water management practices have bolstered food security and helped reduce displacement. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, ICARDA has focused on rangeland restoration and water-saving innovations, providing rural communities with tools to sustain agriculture despite climate and security challenges.
Researching Climate Change Impacts on Agri-Food Systems, Social Cohesion, and Livelihood Support in Displacement Contexts
The Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT’s Climate Security Team conducts research in several countries to generate a better understanding and evidence on how climate change and peace intersect with the creation of livelihoods in contexts of Fragility, Conflict, and Migration (FCM).
Recent studies in Jordan, for example, explored how host communities and refugees are co-generating livelihoods in the agri-food sector and examined both sources of tension and opportunities for social cohesion. Jordan suffers from a protracted refugee crisis, 80% of whom live in host communities. Humanitarian programs initially designed to provide emergency assistance through cash transfers and food coupons are reaching their limits as refugees establish livelihoods despite an insecure legal and political situation regarding their future in Jordan.
Research carried out in the Northern Jordan Valley, around Irbid and Ramtha, in Mafraq Governorate and in Azraq Oasis provided valuable insights into the complexities of refugee livelihoods in agri-food systems.
In Azraq, Mafraq and Irbid, Syrian refugees play a pivotal role in agricultural labor, despite legal restrictions that limit their work opportunities. Syrian and Jordanian communities have established both formal and informal work arrangements that enable sustainable livelihoods in the agri-food sector.
However, climate change impacts the viability of agricultural businesses, increasing socio-economic vulnerabilities and limiting refugee labour on Jordanian farms. As an adaptation strategy, struggling farmers and agri-pastoralists seek paid agricultural labour. This sector has been flooded by Syrian refugees, who still receive direct support from UN agencies and therefore accept lower wages, granting them an advantage on the labour market. Although Syrian agricultural expertise is valued, particularly in respect to climate-smart agriculture, the direct labour market competition of Syrians and Jordanians creates grievances and tensions, while Jordanians lament an unequal distribution of support.
Meanwhile, in the Jordan Valley, the proximity to the Israeli border means refugees are not allowed to work on farms. This regulation reduces direct competition with host communities within the agricultural labour market, which is dominated by labour migrants from Egypt and South Asia. However, this case study highlights the exclusion of refugees from much-sought labour segments and spaces based on regulations around peace and security.
In all locations, respondents expressed frustration over the lack of investment and development programs that foster sustainable, climate resilient agri-food system livelihoods, combining the skills and knowledge of refugees, migrants, and host communities.
The key takeaway for programming is clear: An approach is needed that fosters collaborative and inclusive livelihoods, rather than creating competition between community groups. The design of humanitarian support programs serving only parts of the community can contribute to disturbances of social cohesion. Designing support programs for communities, rather than for individual groups, and fostering livelihoods that build on the existing collaboration and cohesion between host communities and refugees are important entry points for building more peaceful and socially cohesive livelihoods in Jordan’s agri-food-sector.
Furthermore, the co-designing of user-centric, inclusive financing products and mechanisms for Jordanians and refugees, women and men, may help foster collaborative private investment in climate resilience. Encouraging private sector investments—whether through local factories, packaging, or processing industries—could help communities add value to local products and create more resilient livelihoods.
Risk-Informed Programming
How you experience the climate crisis depends on who you are and where you live. The UNHCR Vulnerability Assessment Framework (VAF) in Jordan tracks changes in the living situation of refugees both in camps and host communities. The 2024 VAF assessment tested for the first time a robust methodology to collect data on vulnerability to climate impacts. It showed that Syrian refugees in camps like Azraq and Zaatari are more vulnerable to climate change impacts than those in host communities, largely due to the poor condition of in-camp shelters, which are prone to leakages and flooding. In fragile and conflict-affected settings, these challenges are magnified by dependence on rainfed agriculture and weak institutional capacities, creating a dual burden that strains both populations and economies Data from the VAF can be used to ensure risk informed, people centred, as well as age, gender and diversity sensitive programming to enhance resilience and climate adaptation most effectively.
Climate-Induced Dispute Resolution
IDLO’s rule of law programming in Somalia and Somaliland underscores the critical role that customary and informal justice mechanisms play in delivering justice in fragile contexts where formal institutions are undermined by conflict. Somalia is grappling with three major tensions that exacerbate violence: climate change, competition over land and water resources, and inter-clan conflicts. These challenges are further intensified by deforestation and unsustainable land use practices.
To address these issues, IDLO has supported the establishment of Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) Centres across Somalia. These centres operate as hybrid justice platforms, blending Somali statutory law, customary law (xeer), and Islamic law (shari’a). They provide redress for civil and criminal disputes, including land conflicts aggravated by climate pressures, and serve as platforms for community engagement. ADR Centres ensure the inclusion of marginalized groups, including women and girls, and offer a culturally responsive justice solution that promotes accountability and inclusivity.
A key feature of the ADR Centres is their capacity to anticipate climate-induced disputes. Using forecasts from Somalia’s National Environmental Research and Natural Disaster Preparedness Authority, they can plan justice needs seasonally, identifying hotspots of insecurity related to climatic conditions and directing mobile ADR units to where they are most needed. This proactive approach helps resolve disputes between pastoralists and farmers and easing tensions over shrinking arable land and water resources.
The ADR model represents an effective, scalable mechanism for preventing tensions over climate-scarce resources from escalating into violence. Moreover, IDLO’s programming demonstrates the transformative power of working at the intersection of Sustainable Development Goals 2 (zero hunger), 13 (climate action), and 16 (peace, justice, and strong institutions) in fragile settings.
Supporting Local Solutions
Refugees, other forcibly displaced and stateless people, and their hosts possess knowledge and capacities critical to effective and inclusive climate action. The Mbera Fire Brigade in Mbera refugee camp in Mauritania is exemplary of how the integration of refugees and community-led efforts may positively contribute to climate action and adaptation. Composed of refugee volunteers, the Brigade routinely collaborates with Mauritanians and local authorities to extinguish bushfires in areas surrounding the camp. Their heroic efforts earned them the 2022 Nansen Refugee Award from UNHCR.
With temperatures easily rising above 40°C in the dry season, bushfires, wildfires and forest fires are a frequent occurrence in Mauritania. For the Malian refugees in Mbera, many of whom are herders like their Mauritanian hosts, the protection of scarce resources—vital for livestock and survival—is paramount. This shared reality has created solidarity among the two communities and contributed to social cohesion as they join efforts to protect the lives, livelihoods and Mauritanian environment at stake. Their collaboration has further been extended to reforestation efforts and the building of fire breaks which serve the climate adaptation efforts so critical to tackling climate change today.
Recommendations
- Include the voices and specific needs of affected communities, including displaced populations and host communities in climate finance and policy decisions. This includes in the development of and updates to National Adaptation Plans, Nationally Determined Contributions, Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies, Early Warning Systems, and Early Action protocols for early action and anticipatory action.
- Invest in building climate resilience where needs are greatest, especially in fragile and conflict-affected settings.
- Restore ecosystems that are central to local resource management and that may trigger competition and conflict, based on local knowledge and management practices
- Build resilience programming around local resource sharing arrangements and agreements that already work, strengthening social cohesion and collaborative efforts among different social groups including in displacement settings
- Mainstream considerations around peace and the impact of programs on the relationships between community groups, particularly marginalized groups, into humanitarian, development and peace programming
- Co-develop solutions with local partners and users to ensure inclusive and equal access to services, financing, information, and support for marginalized groups suffering from structural inequality, including refugees
- Integrate conventional law with customary and religious law in dispute resolution and empowering the role of local peacemakers and marginalized groups in peace-making and peacekeeping processes
- Base climate adaptation and resilience building on community-based and locally led practices and traditional knowledge, including those led by refugees, internally displaced people and their hosts to provide solutions to crises and emergencies in collaborative ways that build social cohesion, trust, and peace
Authors: Martina Jaskolski, Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT; Roula Majdalani, ICARDA, Isbandiyar Valiyev, ICARDA, Jana Birner, UNHCR, Irmina Pacho, IDLO, Daniel Eggleston, IDLO