How will the COVID-19 pandemic affect births? Technical Brief
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Based on available reported data from UNFPA and the Short Term Fertility Fluctuation (STFF) study to date, there are no signs of dramatic increases or decreases in fertility due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Short term effects were observed in a range of highly developed countries but these reverted to pre-pandemic levels and trends shortly after.
Data from low and middle income countries suggest similarities to those of many developed countries, with short term declines in births and subsequent recoveries.
Birth registry data from the least developed countries remain so incomplete that no clear conclusions can be drawn of how COVID-19 affected births. In four countries, Benin, Bhutan, Kosovo and to a lesser extent Bangladesh, births increased temporarily during the pandemic, and then reverted to pre-pandemic trends. In Bangladesh, the temporary rise in births was consistent with evidence that family planning services were acutely disrupted at the height of the pandemic.
The short-term decline in births observed in many countries is consistent with other historical crises, such as the Great Depression or the 2008 economic crisis, when widespread economic insecurity, and uncertainty about the future, led to temporary declines in fertility.
In the case of COVID-19, these declines have been more short-lived than in former crises.
However, there is a need for more follow up to determine long-term impacts as the pandemic evolves and new mitigation measures are rolled out.
The paucity of civil registration data across the Least Developed Countries, especially in Africa, means that these governments lack sound subnational population projections, and limited means to plan for development at local level.
Among the many other inequalities exposed by COVID-19, these analyses underscore the need for deep investments in civil registration and related data systems in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Across Africa, for example, there have been numerous reports of family planning service disruptions due to COVID-19, but the national data on birth (or death) registrations remain so incomplete that any potential impacts remain undocumented.