Global Weather Hazards Summary: October 9 - 15, 2015
Heavy rainfall may trigger flooding in Central America and West Africa
The strong El Niño of 2015 has contributed to suppressed rainfall over northern East Africa and Central America and the Caribbean (Figure 1), significantly limiting agricultural and pastoral potential, and straining local livelihoods. These impacts are contributing to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity for approximately four million people in these regions. With El Niño forecast to continue into the first quarter of 2016, suppressed rainfall is likely over many regions during the coming rainy seasons, including in Southern Africa, Central America, and the Caribbean (Figure 2). Over the Horn of Africa and Central Asia, as well as parts of North and South America, the forecast strong El Niño is expected to result in above-average precipitation (Figure 2). Close monitoring of seasonal rainfall performance is needed in areas where El Niño is known to drive regional climate variability. Humanitarian agencies should prepare for high levels of assistance needs across many regions due to El Niño-related impacts on agricultural and pastoral production.