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Global Weather Hazards Summary: June 24 - 30, 2016

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Substantial rain returned to Uganda and the Lake Victoria region this past week

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Low and infrequent rainfall since late March has resulted in drought across parts of southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. The potential for recovery remains unlikely.

  2. Consistently below-normal rainfall over the past 4 weeks has resulted in abnormal dryness for portions of Uganda and western Kenya. This pattern has resulted in low soil moisture and poor vegetation health index values.

Africa Overview

Moisture surged northward into parts of the West African Sahel this past week

During the past 7 days, a surge in moisture and influx of rain was observed in parts of the Sahel. Many areas of central Niger and Mali received at least 10mm, and locally more than 50mm, of rainfall (Figure 1). The heaviest rains (>100mm) in the region were found in southern Nigeria and neighboring Cameroon. Other areas, such as central Cote D’Ivoire and Ghana, as well as parts of Nigeria received lesser and below-normal amounts of rain. Rainfall was enough over the drier portions of the far western Gulf of Guinea region to further diminish moisture deficits there.

An analysis of cumulative rainfall anomalies during the last 30 days (Figure 2) still shows some localized dryness in Sierra Leone and Liberia. However, it has been sufficiently reduced in size and magnitude so as not be of concern any longer. Southern Cote D’Ivoire and neighboring areas of Ghana and Liberia possess the greatest moisture surpluses for the period, with 100-200mm being observed. Other areas are showing notable rainfall deficits on the order of around 50mm. These areas include many parts of Nigeria and central Ghana. Despite some areas of moisture deficits, vegetation indices indicate little colocation of poor vegetation health. Most of the region is on track for a near-normal rainfall/cropping season.

During the next week, model forecasts suggest that rainfall will be enhanced for a large portion of the region. Above-normal rainfall is expected for the western Gulf of guinea Region. It is also expected to stretch eastward across the southern Sahel, where the largest totals may exceed 100mm in local areas. Conversely, suppression is expected in southern Gulf of Guinea locales. These include southern Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria.