Global Weather Hazards Summary: July 31 - August 6, 2015

Above-average temperatures and rainfall lead to flooding in Central Asia

[Extract]

Central Asia Weather Hazards

  1. High temperatures during the first half of July have led to mudflows and flooding, damaging infrastructure and displacing populations across eastern Tajikistan.

  2. Above-average rainfall has triggered flash floods and river and lake inundation in several provinces of Pakistan and eastern Afghanistan. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast in the region, continuing the risk of floods and other adverse ground impacts in the region.

Temperature: During the last week, above-average temperatures prevailed throughout much of eastern Kazakhstan, with the largest anomalies (5° C or more) observed in the Almaty and East Kazakhstan provinces.
High temperatures during the first half of July have led to mudflows and flooding, which has also resulted in damaged infrastructure and displacing populations across eastern Tajikistan. During the next week, the GFS model indicates that normal to above-normal temperatures will persist across eastern Kazakhstan with below-normal temperatures expected throughout Afghanistan, Tajikistan and southern Pakistan.

Precipitation: Since early July, average to above-average rains in western Kazakhstan has gradually decreased moisture deficits and has led to an improvement in ground conditions in the region. Further south, heavy rainfall associated with the Indian monsoon has triggered numerous floods, affecting thousands of people and damaging infrastructure throughout parts of the Badakhshan province of eastern Afghanistan, as well as several provinces in Pakistan. During the next week, the GFS model suggests a continuation of locally heavy rainfall throughout eastern Tajikistan, eastern Afghanistan, Pakistan, sustaining the risk of floods by the end of July.