Global Weather Hazards Summary: January 5 - 12, 2017

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 05 Jan 2017 View Original

Insufficient rain received in many parts of Southern Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Since December, increased locust numbers and breeding have been reported in western Mauritania, Western Sahara, and northeastern Sudan according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.

  2. Below-average and erratic rainfall over the past several weeks has sustained moisture deficits and resulted in degraded ground conditions across many parts of Uganda, Kenya, bimodal and unimodal areas of Tanzania, northern Malawi, and northern Mozambique.

  3. Insufficient rain during November has led to large moisture deficits and abnormal dryness, which have negatively affected cropping activities over parts of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Free State provinces of South Africa.

  4. Deficient rain since late November has strengthened rainfall deficits, resulting in abnormal dryness in eastern and southern Madagascar.

Central Asia Weather Hazards

  1. Abnormal dryness is posted for much of Afghanistan & southern Turkmenistan given recent precipitation deficits and below-average snow water equivalent values throughout the basins of Afghanistan.

Central America and the Caribbean Overview

Rains may be a little heavier than normal this coming week along Caribbean coastal regions*

A few areas of moderate to heavy rainfall were scattered about the region this past week. Moderate rain was observed in eastern parts of eastern Nicaragua according to satellite estimates. There, 50-75mm were recorded. Parts of Costa Rica and Panama received greater than 25mm as well. Elsewhere, precipitation was lighter and scattered, but some parts of northern Guatemala and Honduras saw rainfall.
This pattern was fairly usual for the time of year, with a typical spatial distribution. Over the course of the past 30 days, several heavy rain events led to large positive rainfall anomalies (>200mm) that persist over eastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Any lingering flood threat in these saturated regions should diminish with lightening rainfall this week. Looking farther back into time, rainfall deficits in Guatemala and Honduras have disappeared as the climatology has dried out. Despite having not seen significant rainfall for quite some time, any lingering ground impacts seem minimal in these areas according to vegetation indices.

Looking ahead to the next outlook period, precipitation models suggest that moderate rains are likely across areas of Central America along the Caribbean coast. Potential totals of greater than 75mm would be greater than is typical for the start of the New Year. Rainfall coverage may also be more widespread than usual over northern Guatemala and Honduras while seasonal dryness will be observed for areas closer to the Pacific Ocean.