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Executive Summary
This is the 13th edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), which provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism over the last two decades.
This year’s Index recorded a substantial fall in terrorism worldwide. Deaths from terrorism fell 28 per cent to 5,582, while the number of attacks declined by nearly 22 per cent to 2,944. The improvement was widespread, with 81 countries recording improvements. Only 19 countries deteriorated, the lowest number of deteriorations in the Index’s history. However, there was a significant increase in terrorism in Western countries, which accounted for seven of the 19 deteriorations.
Whether the improvements recorded in 2025 will be sustained remains uncertain. Given the current state of emerging global conflicts, a rise in terrorism is likely.
Islamic State (IS) and its affiliates remained the deadliest terrorist organisation in 2025, although the group was active in fewer countries, dropping from 22 to 15. The four deadliest terrorist organisations in 2025 were IS, Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and al-Shabaab. They were collectively responsible for 3,869 deaths, or 70 per cent of all terrorism fatalities. Three of the four groups recorded a decrease in deaths, with TTP being the only one to record an increase.
Terrorism remains highly concentrated. Just under 70 per cent of deaths from terrorism occurred in only five countries: Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Six of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism are in sub-Saharan Africa, now the global epicentre of terrorism.
For the first time, Pakistan recorded the highest score on the Index and is the country most impacted by terrorism. This follows a sharp resurgence in terrorist activity driven in part by the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021.
Pakistan’s strained relations with its neighbours, combined with rising violence from TTP and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), have created significant security risks. Deaths from terrorism in Pakistan are now at their highest level since 2013, with the country recording 1,139 terrorism deaths and 1,045 incidents in 2025.
Nigeria recorded the largest increase in 2025, with fatalities rising by 46 per cent to 750. Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram were responsible for 80 per cent of all terrorism deaths in the country.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) also recorded a significant increase in terrorism, reaching its worst ever position on the Index. Deaths in the DRC rose by nearly 28 per cent to 467, driven by attacks carried out by the IS-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), which targeted civilians, churches, hospitals, and funerals.
Colombia fell into the ten most impacted countries for the first time since 2013. Terrorism deaths in Colombia increased by 70 per cent, and attacks rose by nearly 47 per cent, driven primarily by dissident factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN). Both groups have adopted drone warfare, drawing direct inspiration from the battlefield innovations seen in Ukraine, with 77 drone attacks recorded between 2024 and 2025.
Deaths in sub-Saharan Africa fell in ten countries while rising in just four. Deaths in the Sahel region accounted for more than half of all terrorism-related deaths globally.
Five countries in the Sahel recorded falls in both the number of deaths and incidents from the year previous. Nigeria is the only country in the region to experience an increase in both categories. Burkina Faso, the most impacted country in 2023 and 2024, recorded the largest decrease in deaths globally, with fatalities falling by 686, or 45 per cent. Despite this decline, lethality increased, reflecting a pattern of fewer but deadlier attacks. The main driver of the decline was a steep reduction in civilian casualties, which fell by 84 per cent.
The year was marked by the absence globally of large-scale attacks. The deadliest attack killed 120 people, compared to 237 in 2024 and over 1,100 in 2023. It was also the only attack in 2025 that killed more than 100 people, compared to five attacks of that magnitude in the prior year. Average lethality also decreased, from 2.1 to 1.8 deaths per attack.
Islamic State continues to function as a loosely affiliated global network. In 2025, it was active in 15 countries across six regions. Despite a 15 per cent fall in the number of attacks attributed to the group, IS was responsible for just under 17 per cent of all attacks worldwide. A notable shift occurred in the group’s regional focus: attacks in sub-Saharan Africa almost doubled in the past year, rising from 111 to 221 incidents, while attacks in the Middle East and North Africa fell by 39 per cent.
Syria experienced the most IS attacks, with 238 incidents. The collapse of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces in North-Eastern Syria, the withdrawal of US troops and mass escapes from detention camps holding former IS fighters, are likely to shape the security environment in Syria and Iraq in 2026. Nigeria saw a dramatic increase in IS activity, with IS attacks jumping from 20 in 2024 to 92 in 2025.
Al-Shabaab, while experiencing a decline in terrorist deaths for the third consecutive year, launched its Shabelle Offensive in early 2025, overrunning government positions across central Somalia. By mid-year the group had advanced to within 50 kilometres of Mogadishu. The offensive exploited the transition between African Union peacekeeping missions, political fractures between the federal government and regional states, and an arms pipeline from Yemen’s Houthis.
he increasingly fragmented global political environment, described in IEP’s Great Fragmentation report, is reflected through a rise in politically motivated terrorist attacks, which increased by almost 20 per cent in 2025. South America accounted for 75 per cent of all terrorism deaths linked to political ideology. Despite the high media profile of attacks in the West, the primary driver of terrorism remains conflict. Only one per cent of deaths from terrorism in 2025 occurred outside conflict-affected countries.
In the West, deaths from terrorism rose sharply, increasing by 280 per cent to 57 deaths. This increase was largely driven by several mass-casualty attacks, including the New Orleans truck attack in the United States in January, and the Bondi Beach shooting in Australia in December. The Bondi Beach attack, carried out by two jihadist extremists who killed 15 people in a targeted attack on Jewish Australians, is now that nation’s worst terrorist attack and its deadliest mass shooting since 1996. Several other high-profile attacks in the West were politically motivated, including the assassination of US conservative political influencer Charlie Kirk and the killing of two Israeli Embassy staff members in Washington DC.
outh radicalisation has emerged as one of the most pressing security concerns in the West. Youth and minors accounted for 42 per cent of all terror-related investigations in Europe and North America in 2025, a threefold increase since 2021. The average radicalisation timeline has contracted dramatically, with radicalisation now capable of occurring within a matter of weeks, driven by short-form online propaganda, algorithmic amplification, and the exploitation of youth developmental vulnerabilities.
Motivations for youth radicalisation vary by region. In the West, alienation and social isolation are the key factors. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, 71 per cent of recruits cited pping point for joining a violent extremist group, while a quarter cited a total lack of job opportunities.
In the West, it is estimated that 87 per cent of radicalised minors had a history of neglect or psychological abuse while 77 per cent had a history of abandonment. Terrorist attacks involving human rights abuse by state security forces as the minors are also far more likely to be foiled, with 97 per cent intercepted by security services between
2022 and 2025, compared to 68 per cent for adult-only plots. Lone-wolf actors carried out 93 per cent of fatal terrorist attacks in the West over the last five years and were three times more likely to successfully execute an attack than groups of two or more plotters.
Border proximity is a defining feature of modern terrorism. Over 41 per cent of terrorist attacks occurred within 50km of an international border, and 64 per cent occurred within 100km. Terrorism in border areas has become more common over the past 15 years, with attacks occurring over 100km from a border falling from 38 per cent in 2011 to 23 per cent in 2025.
Borderlands represent authority gaps where state control is weakest, and the inability of states to effectively manage cross-border counterinsurgency has been a key factor in the spread of terrorism in multiple regions. Several of the world’s most persistent terrorism hotspots are concentrated along border regions, including the Colombia-Venezuela frontier, the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands, the Central Sahel tri-border area, and the Lake Chad Basin. Cross-border militant activity in the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands was the primary driver of the escalation to open conflict between the two countries in February 2026.
Despite the substantial fall in terrorism deaths, the findings of the 2026 Index underscore the shifting nature of global terrorism. While overall levels of terrorism are decreasing, the growing concentration of attacks in border regions, the rise of youth radicalisation, and the spread of terrorist activity across sub-Saharan Africa highlight the persistent and adaptive nature of the threat.
At the time of writing, the geopolitical landscape has deteriorated sharply and the outlook for terrorism in 2026 is concerning. In sub-Saharan Africa, the improvements recorded over the past year mask the territorial gains of the jihadists. They are lessening their terrorist attacks on civilians as they attempt to win hearts and minds and consolidate recently gained territory. They are also expanding activities by imposing economic blockades on major cities.
In South Asia, the long-running tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan erupted into open conflict in February 2026, with Pakistan declaring a state of war and launching airstrikes on Kabul and Kandahar. Open conflict between the two countries is likely to displace populations, weaken border controls, and create the security vacuums in which groups like the TTP and ISKP have historically thrived.
In Syria, Islamic State announced a new phase of operations in late February 2026. The mass escape of over 20,000 individuals from detention facilities holding IS-affiliated fighters and families earlier in the year represents one of the most significant emerging terrorism risks globally.
The joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran, launched on 28 February 2026, greatly escalates the risk of future terrorism. Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes against Israel and US allies in the Gulf, combined with its long-standing relationships with proxy networks including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, mean that the consequences of this escalation will affect the entire region and beyond. The risk of proxy-inspired terrorist attacks against US, Israel, and allied interests, both within the Middle East and in Western countries, has risen substantially.
In the West, the underlying conditions that drove the 280 per cent increase in terrorism deaths in 2025 are unlikely to abate. Political polarisation, rising antisemitic violence, and the rapid online radicalisation of young people continue to create an ongoing environment where terrorism remains a serious threat. Taken together, these converging crises suggest that the global improvement in terrorism recorded in 2025 may prove to be a temporary reprieve for many countries, rather than the beginning of a sustained downward trend.