Attachments
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN MIGRATION
FLOWS DURING THE REPORTING
PERIOD MAY – AUGUST 2025
Diverse border cooperation and enforcement
efforts have rapidly reshaped flows across
regions, causing sharp changes in trends and
dynamics on several routes:
Movements along the Central American Route and
the Western African Atlantic Route have decreased
steeply compared to the same period in 2024, largely
in response to changes in immigration policy and
enforcement. In the Americas, this marks a continuation
of trends observed at the start of the year; however,
movements along some sections of the route decreased
even more sharply in the reporting period. In the Darién
region of Panama, movements fell by 99 per cent compared
to 2024 with only 37 transits identified from May to
August 2025, while 98,918 transits were recorded during
this period last year. Along the Western African Atlantic
Route, arrivals to the Canary Islands fell by 83 per cent
(to 1,602) compared to the same period in 2024, as
border cooperation efforts between the European Union,
Mauritania and Senegal took effect.
Southbound migration flows have reshaped the
Central American migration route, with new pathways
emerging that bypass traditional transit points. Driven
by changes in US immigration policy and enforcement,
southbound migration is now the predominant form of
movement, with 92 per cent of flows recorded between
Panama and Colombia heading south. Migrants are
increasingly travelling by sea from Panama’s northeastern
coast to Necoclí, a municipality on Colombia’s Caribbean
coast, which has rapidly become a major transit hub in
the reoriented north–south migration flow. This allows
migrants to bypass the Darién region, formerly a prominent
transit area for northbound flows. The change in route has
also been driven by the risks associated with crossing the
Darién region, a notoriously remote jungle and swampland
area where migrants have faced dangerous wildlife, rugged
conditions, and contact with criminal groups. Changes to the
route also include less prominent branches forming along
Panama’s Pacific coast, indicating a broader reconfiguration
that will continue to evolve throughout the year. These
geographic changes are expected to persist as the United
States of America (hereafter United States) phases out
Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for several nationalities,
including Nicaragua (July), Honduras (July), and Haiti (June),
with Venezuelans also at risk. The loss of TPS is expected
to prompt many to leave the United States and will likely
contribute to the continued southbound movement
reshaping this route.
In North and West Africa, departure points for sea
crossings to Europe have changed in response to
border cooperation efforts and the greater presence
of au thorities. Libya has now re-emerged as the primary
departure country in North Africa, strategically positioned
at the intersection of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean
migration routes. Along the Central Mediterranean Route,
departures from Libya increased by 69 per cent between
May and August 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
In contrast, departures from Tunisia declined by nearly the
same margin (-69%), while Türkiye and Algeria also saw
decreases of -52 per cent and -10 per cent, respectively.
Meanwhile, on the Eastern Mediterranean Route, Libya
overtook Türkiye as the leading departure country for
arrivals to Greece for the first time on record. Of all
arrivals to Greece between May and August 2025, 52 per
cent departed from Libya, compared to 48 per cent from
Türkiye, marking a significant shift in regional migration
dynamics and further consolidating it as an alternative
route to reach Europe.