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Ukraine, Middle East key flashpoints, but biggest expansion of conflict in Africa
Conflict affected areas across the world have grown 65% since 2021 to encompass 4.6% of the entire global landmass, up from 2.8% three years ago. That is equivalent to 6.15 million km2 – nearly double the size of India – which is now afflicted by fighting between or within states, according to new research.
Global risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft’s Conflict Intensity Index, which measures the severity of armed conflict across 198 countries, shows the Middle East and Ukraine remain the most intense theatres of war. While the spread of conflict in these two arenas is well documented due to their geopolitical significance, the data reveals a global expansion of fighting in regions that are less reported on. In total, 27 countries, including Ecuador, Colombia, India, Indonesia and Thailand, have experienced a significant increase in risk on the index since 2021.
However, it is sub-Saharan Africa that has seen a greater expansion of conflict than any other region.
Africa’s ‘conflict corridor’ doubles in size
Africa’s ‘conflict corridor,’ which now spans 4000 miles from Mali in the west to Somalia in the east, has doubled in size in the last three years. As a result, the size of conflict affected areas in 14 countries across the Sahel and East Africa now equates to around 10% of sub-Saharan Africa’s overall land mass. This is equal to 2.5 million km2 that is directly embroiled or in close proximity to fighting – over 10 times the size of the UK. This year, fatalities as a result of fighting across the ‘conflict corridor’ are also on course to increase by over 50% compared to 2021.
The escalation is most pronounced in Burkina Faso, where 86% of the country is now embroiled in conflict between state forces and militants. Over the same period, conflict zones in the civil wars in Sudan and Ethiopia have expanded by more than 20% and 30% respectively, while armed violence in Nigeria now affects 44% of its territory.
Beyond Africa, several other lesser-known conflicts are also contributing to the upswing. The civil war in Myanmar, which has been raging since the 2021 coup d’état, has seen the South-East Asian state fall from the 19th to the 2nd worst performing country on the Conflict Intensity Index. Haiti and Ecuador have also chalked up similar deteriorations on the index amid surging gang violence, which has escalated from criminality to the declaration of internal conflicts.
Middle East, Ukraine remain key conflicts
The Middle East is one of the key drivers in the upward global conflict trend. Israel, the Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen are all now ranked among the 10 highest risk jurisdictions globally on the Conflict Intensity Index.
Following the 7 October 2023 terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas, and the subsequent retaliation by the Netanyahu government against Iran’s so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’, the region remains on a knife-edge. Rapidly increasing tensions between Iran and Israel point to the potential for conflict to escalate to a stage where Iran itself and even Gulf states could become new centres of conflict in the months ahead.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine similarly represents another important driver of the global uptick in conflict, with the proportion of Ukrainian territory affected by fighting rising from under 8.6% to 70.5% since February 2022. Perhaps more surprisingly, the amount of Russian territory affected by conflict has increased more than 10-fold over the same period.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House points to a major shift in US policy towards the war in Ukraine. His pledge to ‘solve’ the conflict could result in President Zelensky being pressured into accepting a ceasefire or losing US military and financial support. Such a scenario would reduce the intensity of conflict in Ukraine and Russia substantially. But a ceasefire that is forced upon Kyiv risks creating a frozen conflict that is susceptible to regular flare-ups.
Intensifying global conflict has a myriad of consequences
“From the widespread human cost, increased migration and the widening of geopolitical fault lines, to the damaging economic impacts and threats to international trade and supply chains, the consequences of the upsurge in conflict are globally significant,” says Hugo Brennan, Research Director at Verisk Maplecroft.
The human toll of conflict is alarming. Global conflict fatalities could breech 200,000 by the end of the year, up nearly a third since 2021, according to Verisk Maplecroft’s assessment of the latest data from ACLED. The UN also estimated that the number of people displaced by conflict, violence or persecution exceeded over 120 million by the end of April 2024.
From a business perspective, data from Verisk Maplecroft shows that corporate exposure to conflict is currently limited. The highest risk sector is oil and gas, but only 3.68% of the industry’s assets of are exposed. This could change rapidly if conflict in the Middle East escalates. Global supply chains remain more challenged by conflict, as the disruption to Red Sea maritime trade caused by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and the fallout from the Ukraine war has shown.
“There is little sign that the recent upsurge in armed conflict – and all the tragedy and challenges that go with it – will dissipate in 2025,” adds Brennan. “Indeed, the situation may get worse before it gets better.”