Attachments
Highlights
- La Niña is expected to emerge in late 2024 and persist into early 2025, bringing extreme weather events that could cause extensive agricultural damage and worsen food security conditions.
- Dry weather conditions are forecast in parts of East Africa, Central Asia, the Near East and southern parts of South America, while excessive rainfall and flooding are likely in Central America, Southern Africa and Southeast Asia.
- There is particular concern for the areas that are still recovering from the lingering effects of the recent El Niño and are also at risk of La Niña, including parts of East and Southern Africa where acute food insecurity is already at critical levels.
Overview
La Niña is forecast to emerge in the last quarter of 2024 and persist into early 2025 (Figure 1), exacerbating the acute food insecurity situation in areas already affected by weather extremes linked to the 2023/24 El Niño, which lasted from June 2023 to May 2024. In many countries, El Niño caused significant crop losses and disrupted livestock production, leading to food prices spikes and reducing income of households, making them more vulnerable to future weather shocks. La Niña is typically associated with below‑average rainfall amounts in parts of East Africa, Central Asia, the Near East, southern parts of South America and the United States of America (Map 1). Conversely, above-average precipitation amounts and flooding are generally observed in parts of West Africa, Southern Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, Central America and northern areas of South America.