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The Future of Forecasts: Impact-Based Forecasting for Early Action

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Manual and Guideline
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In 2017 and 2018, the global economic cost of weather disasters was an estimated 653 billion USD.
With ever growing pressure on land use, energy, livelihoods, availability of food, water and shelter, global interest in minimising human and economic cost of extreme weather and climate events continues to increase.

Impact-based forecasting provides the information needed to act before disasters to minimise the socio-economic costs of weather and climate hazards. Organisations and individuals can make critical decisions to ensure that resources and supplies are in place to take early action and to respond as soon as it is safe to do so. Impact-based forecasting is one of the crucial elements of the Red Cross Red Crescent Forecast-based Financing systems.

The inclusion of risk assessments makes impact-based forecasting unique among other forecasts and warnings.
Hazard forecast information combined with vulnerability and exposure data is used by national meteorological and hydrological services and partner organisations to create a risk assessment.