Attachments
KEY MESSAGES
● El Niño conditions are currently present and are forecast to continue through at least early next year.
In East Africa, El Niño impacts vary geographically. Across western parts, El Niños are associated with below-normal rains from June to September. Meanwhile, across the Horn of Africa, El Niños are associated with above-normal rains and flooding between October and December. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also underway and will likely enhance above-average rains in the Horn of Africa.
● In areas recently affected by drought, increased rainfall will likely help to support drought recovery, increasing agricultural production and driving an overall decline in food insecurity. However, in floodprone and riverine areas, there is a substantial risk of flooding, which could destroy critical infrastructure and assets, cause crop damage and livestock deaths, displace populations, limit humanitarian access, and lead to localized increases in food insecurity.
● Across certain western parts of the region, dry spells observed between June and September, along with conflicts and socioeconomic challenges limiting access to inputs, could reduce agricultural production and exacerbate already very high levels of food and nutrition insecurity.
● Forecast flooding will likely drive additional population displacements in a region with already about 18 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). Displaced populations are particularly vulnerable to food and nutrition insecurity, water-borne diseases, protection and gender-based violence (GBV) risks, and other humanitarian challenges. Persons with disabilities are disproportionately at risk of losing access to life-saving services.
● Floods are likely to reduce access and cause damage to existing water sources and sanitation infrastructures. The combination of damaged infrastructures, contaminated water sources, and population displacements may cause surges in malnutrition.
● Flooding and intense rainfall may cause water- and vector-borne disease outbreaks, as well as damage to or closures of health facilities. This in turn may reduce regular health service delivery and restrict access to healthcare. Likely population displacements and related overcrowding in locations hosting IDPs may further increase the risk of infectious disease outbreaks.
● Most countries already have in place policies, institutions, contingency plans and other initiatives for risk mitigation, preparedness, and emergency response for climate hazards. However, it is critical to urgently revise and/or implement existing tools while ensuring that preparedness, anticipation, and response efforts are informed by climate forecast updates and take into account the increased risks faced by certain vulnerable populations, such as women, girls, and persons with disabilities.