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FRONTEX Strategic Risk Analysis 2022

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Frontex publishes strategic risk analysis for 2022-2032

Today, Frontex is releasing the Strategic Risk Analysis 2022, which provides foresight on how megatrends and possible future events might develop and affect EU border and migration management between now and 2032.

From the instrumentalisation of migration by non-EU countries to COVID-19 and Russia’s war on Ukraine, the EU has faced several crises in quick succession over the past two years. The new publication predicts that these events will have long-lasting effects, making crisis management a permanent feature of EU border management.

The report aims at identifying threats, challenges and opportunities in the field of border management and returns over a 10-year horizon. It singles out six megatrends as having the highest impact - security, demographics, climate change, inequalities, health challenges, and governance systems – and offers alternative future scenarios to facilitate strategic discussions at EU and national level.

Frontex prepares the report on strategic risk analysis every two years in close cooperation with EU Member States. The report is submitted to the European Parliament, the Council, and the European Commission to inform and support policy making.