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Summary
Our monthly Food Security Monitor is one way AGRA makes data available to key stakeholders to underpin evidence-based decision-making. Highlights from the November 2024 Food Security Monitor are summarised below:
Food Security Updates
Overall, East Africa continues to experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4), Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions. In Kenya, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas through January. Meanwhile, in Uganda's bimodal regions, the ongoing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions are expected to improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes from November 2024 through May 2025. In Southern Africa, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions continue to affect Malawi. In Mozambique, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions are expected to persist in the southern, central, and northern regions due to ongoing conflicts, El Niño-induced drought, and the lean season. This food insecurity situation is likely to last until March 2025, with improvements anticipated as the new harvest begins in April/May 2025. Similarly, Zimbabwe is expected to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions until May 2025 due to the lean season and last season's El Niño-induced drought. In West Africa, mixed trends are observed. Burkina Faso and Nigeria are mostly experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to insecurity and macroeconomic challenges. Meanwhile,
Niger and Mali are seeing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) conditions, respectively, owing to seasonal improvements in household access to food and income, thanks to overall average harvests ensuring sufficient food availability.
Food Commodity Prices Updates
Overall, the national average price of maize (in local currency) in the Eastern African region is significantly lower in all select East African countries except for Ethiopia and South Sudan where maize prices remain 1.76% and 165.84% higher than the past 1-12 months respectively. Although retail maize prices are cheapest in Tanzania at USD 266/MT, the prices have started to increase due to increase in export demand of maize from neighbouring countries and is expected to continue increasing to over USD 300/MT by early 2025. Rwanda has recorded 18% price increase of maize month-on-month, making it the most expensive maize (in USD terms) in the region due to stock depletion occasioned by delayed short rains (September-November). Kenya has the most expensive prices (in USD terms) for wheat, rice, and beans in the region because of inflationary pressures facing the country. Uganda's prices remained considerably low compared to the past 1-12 months, with Ethiopia’s wheat prices being lower than the past 1-6 months associated with increased stocks from ongoing good meher season harvests.
In Southern Africa, the national average prices of maize in local currencies show a slight uptick compared to the past month underpinned by currency depreciation, higher transportation costs and limited forex availability. Although Zambia has maintained a stable currency, the country has been experiencing an incipient depreciation since mid-October which might heighten imported inflation trend and increased price of maize. Similarly, limited forex availability in Malawi has continued to impact prices of maize due to increase in the cost of importation of maize from neighbouring countries occasioned by the country's inability to purchase enough fuel to run the economy. The onset of the main rain seasons in the region is likely to offset the food shortage that impacted these countries this year.
In West Africa, the overall local prices of maize show a significantly upward trend compared to November 2023 between 11.11% and 117.63% occasioned by late-season flooding, weak currency, high transport costs and strong domestic demand resulting from below-average cereal production. When compared to the past 3, 6, and 12-month price levels in most monitored West African countries, the prices of rice, millet, and sorghum remain high with some signs of stability or declines shown over the past month due to the completion or near-completion of main-season cereal harvests in the region.
Prices have been increasing in Nigeria mainly driven by the continued devaluation of the Naira, reduced domestic cereal production and high transport costs. With staple crop prices fetching high prices in Ghana, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), through financial contribution of USD 3.6 million contribution (over 58.3 million Ghanaian cedis) from the United States, and the United Kingdom, have provided emergency food and nutrition assistance to 70,000 drought-affected people in northern Ghana1 .
Food Trade Updates
• The Government of Zimbabwe has issued a total of 885 import permits to 423 private companies, contrary to the normal practice of private companies buying grain from the Grain Marketing Board (GMB). This is part of measures to ensure food security until the next harvest.
• The government of Ghana has extended its ban on export of key grains, including maize, rice, and soyabeans in response to critical supply challenges in the domestic market and is intended to ensure food security. The measure will be in place until the situation improves.
• Tanzania's National Food Reserve Authority (NFRA) has notified Zambia that it willstop maize supply due to the latter's failure to fulfil the contractual obligations agreed upon by both countries.
• The U.S. plans to contribute another $560 million in “new funding” to the Lobito Corridor Rail Project, which will bring total U.S. private and public investment in the corridor to more than $4 billion. The initiative is expected to have a transformative impact on enhancing access to critical minerals needed for the clean energy transition and digital connectivity, strengthening food security, boosting regional trade, and empowering communities all along the Corridor.