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Food Security Updates
The prevalence of the number of people with insufficient food for consumption across 16 select East, Southern, and Western African countries remained largely the same, except in Zimbabwe and Nigeria, where it declined by 11.76% and 3.31%, respectively. However, the prevalence of insufficient food consumption in January 2025 remains higher than a year ago across all selected countries.
Over 9.5 million people across Kenya, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and above outcomes, according to the latest report of the East Africa Food Security and Nutrition Working Group. South Sudan alone accounts for about 64% of this outcome.
Food Commodity Prices Updates
The national average price of maize in local currency varies across the Eastern African region. Compared to a year ago, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda have seen lower prices due to due to bumper harvests, while Rwanda and South Sudan have experienced significant increases of 34.69% and 213.26%, respectively. These increases are due to tight supplies, conflict impacts, and severe macroeconomic difficulties, particularly in South Sudan. Tanzania has the lowest maize price at USD 263/MT, with both Tanzania and Ethiopia seeing price decreases of approximately 1.96% and 12.91%,respectively, from December 2024 to January 2025. This decrease is mainly attributed to the anticipation of large harvests in early 2025, leading to increased market supply and easing prices. Conversely, Kenya has the highest prices for maize, wheat, rice, and beans in the region, driven by inflationary pressures. Ethiopia's wheat prices are lower than last year, thanks to increased stocks from a successful meher season harvest.
In Southern Africa, the national average prices of maize in local currencies remain significantly high, ranging between 20% and 64% compared to the past 1-12 months. Malawian and Zambian national average maize prices are 37.9% and 20% higher than a year ago, primarily due to last year's drought. In USD terms, Malawi saw a 35% rise in price to USD 722, compared to Zambia's USD 344. This increase is driven by a fuel shortage crisis and limited forex availability, which raised transportation costs for sourcing maize from neighboring Tanzania. Meanwhile, Zambia has managed its stock by importing through traders from Tanzania, despite the Tanzanian government's suspension of a 650,000 MT maize deal signed with the Zambian government in 2024.
In West Africa,local maize prices remain generally higher than a year ago but stable compared to the past month in Togo. In Ghana, maize prices have risen by 3.88% over the past month due to a prolonged dry spell in the north. Emergency food and nutrition assistance provided to 70,000 drought-affected people in northern Ghana is expected to stabilize prices soon. Overall, the prices of rice, millet, and sorghum remain higher than a year ago in most countries but are generally low or stable compared to the past 1-6 months, thanks to increased stocks from the completion of main-season cereal harvests. However, prices have been increasing in Nigeria, driven by ongoing macroeconomic challenges, including the devaluation of the Naira, reduced domestic cereal production, and high transport costs.
Food Trade Updates
- The government of Kenya, through its Plant Health Inspectorate Service (KEPHIS), has reinstated the physical test, examination, and inspection charges that were suspended in July 2024. Effective December 1, the cost for inspecting and obtaining a phytosanitary certificate for exporting a 40-foot container will rise from USD 11.80 to USD 90.50.
- On January 29, 2025, Tanzania and Burundi signed an agreement to construct a 282-kilometer Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) linking Uvinza in Tanzania to Musongati in Burundi. The project also includes the construction of a one-kilometer bridge connecting Tanzania and Burundi, designed to accommodate both rail and road traffic.
- In a major move to boost regional trade efficiency, Malawi has officially rolled out its COMESA Electronic Certificate of Origin (e-CO) program. This makes Malawi the second Member State to adopt the pilot electronic certificate, following Eswatini's launch in November 2024.
- Malawi and Zambia have initiated the COMESA Electronic Certificate of Origin (eCO) Programme to boost trade efficiency. This program simplifies the process for exporters, cutting down the time and costs involved in obtaining traditional certificates.
- The Zambian government has reduced transit fees for truck drivers through a Statutory Instrument. Effective December 9, 2024, the cost of Transit Permits will be K4,500 for first-time applications and duplicates, while renewals will cost K5,625.
- Nigeria's first shipment under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) successfully reached Kenya. This milestone represents a significant moment in Africa's trade history.
There are many information products on food security out there, but we hope that the detailed analysis presented in our Food Security Monitor brings more value to you due to its unilateral focus on African agriculture, food trade, and food and nutrition security. The Food Security Monitor comes out monthly; previous editions are available here.