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Food Assistance Outlook Brief, July 2023: FEWS NET’s projected population in need (PIN) of urgent food assistance in Jan. 2024

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Projected population in need in January 2024 across FEWS NET monitored countries:
100 -110 million
10% of the population

Total humanitarian food assistance needs across FEWS NET-monitored countries in January 2024 are projected to be:
Similar to needs in Jan. 2023
Higher than the five-year average

This brief summarizes FEWS NET’s projection of the population in need of urgent food assistance and the severity of anticipated acute food insecurity in FEWS NET-monitored countries seven months into the future. The projected size of each country’s population experiencing acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and higher) is compared to last year and the recent five-year average, categorized as Higher, Similar, or Lower. Additional information is provided for countries with large food insecure populations, an expectation of high severity, or where other key issues warrant further context. Analytical confidence is lower in FEWS NET’s remotely monitored countries, indicated by “RM.” Visit www.fews.net for detailed country reports.

Key Messages

  • In January 2024, FEWS NET expects the number of people in need of humanitarian food assistance to be highest in the countries of Yemen, Nigeria, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Sudan.

  • When food assistance needs are expressed as a percent of the total population of each respective FEWS NET- monitored country, FEWS NET expects the share of the population that needs humanitarian food assistance to be highest in South Sudan and Yemen, where over 50 percent of each country’s population will most likely need food assistance, followed by Somalia and Afghanistan, where over 20 percent of each country’s population will most likely need food assistance.

  • Out of the projected total of 100-110 million people in need across FEWS NET-monitored countries, Yemen and Nigeria are each expected to contribute over 10 percent of total food assistance needs. Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, South Sudan, and Afghanistan are each expected to contribute 5 to 9 percent of total food assistance needs.

  • In comparison to January of last year, FEWS NET projects the number of people in need of food assistance will be higher in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti, Malawi, and Sudan. In contrast, FEWS NET projects the number of people in need of food assistance will be lower in Afghanistan, Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Somalia, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe, and. In all other countries, FEWS NET expects food assistance needs to be similar to last year.