HIGHLIGHTS
- Latest information confirms a further improvement in global cereal supply situation in the current 2009/10 marketing year. Another above-average production in 2009 should exceed consumption by a significant margin and total cereal inventories are forecast to climb to an 8-year high.
- In several Sahelian and Eastern Africa countries, however, cereal and pasture production declined sharply and a difficult food security situation is anticipated this year in parts of Niger, Chad and northern Nigeria. Pastoralist and agro-pastoralist populations in Kenya, Ethiopia and Eritrea, also face food difficulties due to successive seasons of poor rains.
- In Haiti, the food security situation has worsened dramatically following the earthquake on 12th January, despite a generally good food production in 2009. Food assistance is being provided to 2 million people. Provision of agricultural inputs for the next main planting from March is urgently needed.
- Overall, food emergencies currently affect 33 countries around the world.
Outlook for 2010 cereal production
- Early prospects for the 2010 new season point to a reduction in global wheat output reflecting smaller plantings, due to lower prices and adverse weather in parts. However, early indications of larger maize crops in some major producers suggest an increase in global coarse grain output might occur. The 2010 rice season just started in the southern hemisphere countries and a first global production outlook will only become available in a few months.
- In Low-Income Food-Deficit countries, prospects for the early 2010 cereal crops are uncertain. In North Africa, dry weather delayed plantings of 2010 winter crops and more rains are needed. In Southern Africa, prolonged dry spell is likely to have reduced maize yields in some countries. In Far East Asia, the outlook for the mostly irrigated wheat crop is being adversely affected by erratic precipitation since the beginning of the season.