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ROUND UP
With northern hemisphere countries about to complete the collection of their secondary paddy crops, the 2013 season is virtually over. Based on its latest assessment, FAO has heightened its April estimate of global paddy production in 2013 by 2.1 million tonnes to 747.0 million tonnes (498.0 million tonnes, milled basis), with much of the revision arising from a better performance than previously anticipated in Asia, especially for Bangladesh, China (Mainland), India, Iraq, Myanmar, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, but also in Western Africa, for Chad and Mali. The resulting 1.5 percent year-to-year increase is above the 1.1 percent growth predicted in April, but still falls short of the long-run pace of 2.0 percent registered since 2000. All of the expansion in 2013 production is estimated to have stemmed from an enlarged paddy area, as yields declined slightly.
Unlike for 2013, FAO’s forecast for global paddy production in 2014 has been downgraded somewhat since April, by 120 000 tonnes, to 750.9 million tonnes (500.7 million tonnes, milled). At that level, it would stand only 0.5 percent, or 3.9 million tonnes, above the revised 2013 estimate. However, even more than usual at this time of the year, the outlook is shrouded with uncertainty, under a looming El Niño, as the impact of the weather anomaly on crops will very much depend on its timing and intensity.
For instance, if El Niño resurfaces in the last quarter of the year, it would have limited effects on the main 2014 paddy crops, which, by that time, would have already been harvested. The consequences would be stronger on the 2014 secondary crops in northern hemisphere countries and on the first 2015 crops in southern hemisphere countries, both of which will be planted late in 2014 or in the first part of 2015. Even with this caveat, prospects for the 2014 season were already marred by a slow establishment of the seasonal rains, which renders rainfall performance in the coming months particularly critical.
Although little changed globally since April, expectations over production in 2014 have been subject to major offsetting changes at the country level. In particular, the outlook worsened for India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka, but also for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Senegal, reflecting, in most cases, drought or untimely rainfalls. Instead, FAO upgraded its forecasts for crops in China (mainland), but also in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Chad, Egypt, Iraq, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Mali, Myanmar, Pakistan, Peru, the Russian Federation, Sierra Leone, the United Republic of Tanzania and Viet Nam.
Across the various regions, Asia is anticipated to garner about 679 million tonnes in 2014, a volume only 0.2 percent, or 1.1 million tonnes, higher than in 2013. Such a meagre growth reflects expectations of a poor season in India, but also in Indonesia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand, all of which might face year-on-year contractions. By contrast, Bangladesh, China (Mainland), Myanmar,
Pakistan, the Philippines and Viet Nam are anticipated to see production expand, often underpinned by additional government support. The outlook is far more positive in Africa, which is anticipated to see production leap by 3.8 percent, or 1 million tonnes, to 28.3 million tonnes (18.5 million tonnes, milled). However, much of the region’s expected growth reflects a recovery in Madagascar from its dismal 2013 performance, as crops in the country have benefited this season from adequate precipitation and a reduced incidence of pests. The outlook is also much improved for Eastern Africa, now set to gather 3 percent