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This joint analytical study shows that natural disasters resulting from El Niño, a weather pattern caused by periods of warming in the Pacific Ocean, could have damaging socio-economic effects for the Asia and Pacific region, generating human insecurities and significant hazards for a region highly dependent on its agricultural sector’s crop production.
The analysis highlights that scientific organizations worldwide have estimated a 70 per cent chance of an El Niño event in the Northern Hemisphere’s summer, and an 80 per cent chance during autumn/winter of 2014-2015. The policy brief considers two possible scenarios: (i) an onset in August, forecasting a significant impact on the macro-economy of South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific region due to smaller amounts of rainfall than during regular conditions; and (ii) an onset after September with a lesser impact on the region, as the North-East monsoon could in fact bring favorable amounts of rain to West and Central Asia.
In continuing to emphasize mitigation strategies for these outcomes, it calls for governments to include the Climate Change Agreement (CCA) and mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) into national development plans, strengthen early warning systems and establish common discussions such as monsoon forums, as well as to broadcast strategies for coping with disasters (especially in the agricultural industry). It also calls on international and regional organizations to work towards resilience-building with regards to climate risk by creating platforms for the sharing of knowledge on the matter, and providing support for countries that have created suitable policies towards El Niño protection.