ReliefWeb

Executive Summary

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues affecting ASEAN food security. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that temperatures will rise between 1.5 to 3 degrees Celsius by 2100 given foreseeable levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Higher temperatures have signifi cant ramifi cations for food production, through: (1) continuous impacts – such as changes in yield due to temperature increase, shifting season lengths, and increased salinity in coastal areas;

(2) discontinuous impacts – such as increases in harvest failure due to extreme weather- and climate-related events, pests, and disease outbreaks; and (3) permanent impacts – such as the loss of land due to inundation as a result of sea-level rise.

Existing studies highlight several ways in which such impacts might affect Southeast Asia. As a result of higher temperatures, the region will likely experience more extreme and intense heat and rainfall events. It is also projected that sea level will rise at accelerating rates compared to past decades, resulting in increasing inundation of agricultural land. Impacts of climate change such as ocean acidifi cation and warming water temperatures are already affecting fi sh catches in coral and pelagic areas and threatening the livelihood of fi shing communities. These impacts are set to become more pronounced.

On land, climatic changes are having a myriad of second- and third-order effects on agriculture such as making rainfall patterns and dry periods less predictable and affecting rivers fed by upstream ice and snowmelt. More directly, simple increases in temperatures can affect the germination and gestation processes of key crops, and potentially undermine the food production growth levels that the region requires.