Attachments
By Ariel Ezrahi
Executive summary and policy recommendations
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is facing a severe crisis due to climate change.
A “New Middle Eastern Order” can and should be shaped by the United States and its regional allies to enable the critical cooperation mentioned below. This approach could build on the energy diplomacy seen in the region before October 7, 2023, while recognizing the need for a viable path toward resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Similarly, the United States should continue to make an effort to address the Israel-Lebanon conflict, and, though less urgent, should work on the Turkey-Greece-Cyprus issue to reduce Eastern Mediterranean tensions and foster stronger energy cooperation, including with Turkey. This is a tall order, but the alternatives are bleak.
- The MENA region will face increasing climate-derived conflicts unless countries in the region work together to adapt and mitigate the impacts. There are “low-hanging fruit” opportunities where such cooperation can begin immediately, such as direct meteorological collaboration.
- Regional groupings, both new and old (e.g., the East Mediterranean Gas Forum or the proposed reformed East Mediterranean + Energy Forum), can play a helpful role in this regard and become part of the formal mechanisms noted below if beneficial.
- Climate change is increasingly becoming a national security issue. States need to consider infrastructure and climate change security at the same level as traditional security alliances, assessing which alliances best serve their climate and energy security concerns.
- To this end, it is proposed to establish formal mechanisms to ensure cooperation across borders in combating climate change and supplying energy throughout the region.3 Such a mechanism must be resilient against internal chaos (as we are seeing in Israel and Lebanon) as well as cross-border conflicts and political tensions. Moreover, it should withstand changes in government, including in the United States. Specifically, it is proposed that the United States and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) launch a set of formal energy and climate task forces, ideally structured in a manner that can endure governmental changes in the United States or the Middle East.
- The overall task force platform could be co-chaired by the United States and the UAE, as proposed. The UAE would be an ideal choice for this role, should it be interested, considering its leadership in energy transition matters both regionally and globally, as well as its universal acceptability as an important broker in the region.
- The overall task force platform is proposed to include specific topic task forces co-chaired by relevant countries and the United States. An alternative would be for the United States and the UAE to split co-chairing responsibilities among various topic task forces or to involve other players, such as the European Union.
- For example, the UAE and the United States could co-chair the renewable energy/energy tech task force (including carbon capture, utilization, and storage and battery storage), while Saudi Arabia and the United States could co-chair the hydrogen task force, Jordan and the United States could co-chair the electricity grid task force, and Egypt and the UAE could co-chair the energy transition task force. Members should include energy and climate experts from the region, as well as representatives from the private sector and financial institutions, both private and governmental.
- The task force would be a nonpolitical gathering aimed solely at cross-border initiation planning and implementation of projects and initiatives, with key examples outlined in this paper.4 Task force members would regularly report to the lead (e.g., US-UAE) on the status of cross-border projects and cooperation. The United States could also involve other countries, financial institutions, and the private sector to finance these initiatives. New projects and initiatives could build on existing projects as well as on existing agreements and initiatives. The task forces would not be the end goal; rather, the underlying projects and initiatives would be. Moreover, it is essential that the vision for this setup does not distract from or interfere with ongoing projects, initiatives, or institutions but instead seeks to build and expand upon them to encourage and facilitate additional successful endeavors.