ReliefWeb

The unfolding El Niño event is predicted by climate models to be a major event, possibly one of the strongest ever recorded

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE PACIFIC?

Drought

Past events and meteorological data suggests that the risk of severe drought is high in PNG, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga and Samoa, while Niue and Cook Island are subject to high risk of drought due to their more eastern location. The risk of drought is also high for Palau, Northern Marianas and Guam, FSM and Marshall Islands.

Increased rainfall

Above normal rainfall is expected in Kiribati between June and August 2015

Cyclones

There is an elevated risk of intense cyclones, potentially early start and late nish of the cyclone season, and an elevated likelihood of cyclones particularly in Niue, Samoa and Cook Islands (east of Tonga).

Diseases

heightened risk of certain vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever due to abundance of mosquitoes and decreased immunity due to undernutrition.