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East Africa Seasonal Monitor - March 25, 2020

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Current and forecast rainfall indicative of early to timely onset of rainfall seasons in February and March

KEY MESSAGES

  • Since mid-February, Tanzania and equatorial East Africa have received above-average rainfall. The dry season between the October-December 2019 rains and onset of the main season and first season rains in Tanzania, western Kenya, and Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi was atypically short.
  • The Horn of Africa has remained seasonally dry and hot since January. However, rangeland conditions are above normal following the exceptional October-December 2019 rains. According to the latest rainfall forecasts, there is an increased likelihood of an early to timely onset of the Belg rains in Ethiopia and the long rains/Gu rains in the Horn.
  • Given persistent above-average rainfall in equatorial East Africa, the rainfall forecast poses an elevated risk of flooding in lowland and hilly areas. In addition, the expected resurgence of second-generation desert locusts through June pose a hazard to crop and livestock production.