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East Africa Seasonal Monitor - June 12, 2020

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Situation Report
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Above-average to average March to May rainfall season ends earlier than normal in parts of the Horn

KEY MESSAGES

  • After an early onset, the March to May rainfall season peaked in late April and early May. Torrential rain caused floods in the Lake Victoria basin, major river basins, and low-lying flood-prone areas. At least 845,000 people were displaced across the Horn, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi, according to data available from OCHA and country governments.

  • The rainfall season began to subside by mid-May, marking an earlier-than-normal end to the season in some short rains- and Gudependent areas of the Horn and an atypical dry spell in parts of Uganda. Dry and hot conditions are expected in bimodal areas of the Horn until the onset of the short rains/Deyr rains in late September/October.

  • Rangeland conditions remain exceptionally favorable in most bimodal areas. However, crop production prospects in eastern and southeastern Kenya, southern and northwestern Somalia, southwestern Ethiopia, parts of Uganda, and southeastern South Sudan are being closely monitored due to the mixed effects of heavy rainfall and floods, early end of season, and desert locusts.

  • In unimodal rainfall-dependent areas of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan, as well as western Kenya and northeastern Uganda, rainfall forecasts predict above-average June to September seasonal rainfall with an associated risk of floods in river basins.