Heavy June to September rains bring floods but generally support favorable cropping conditions
The June to September seasonal rains are currently well established in the northern and western sectors with generally average to above-average cumulative performance since June. However, slight to moderate rainfall deficits persist in eastern Sudan and northern South Sudan.
In July and early August, heavy rainfall resulted in severe flooding that displaced communities in eastern South Sudan, southern Somalia, Ethiopia, western Yemen, and parts of Sudan.
Cropping and rangeland conditions generally remain favorable across much of East Africa, apart from localized flood-affected areas. However, rangeland in parts of the eastern Horn is presently on a declining trend after the early cessation of the March to May 2020 rains and prevailing hotter-than-normal conditions.
The short-term rainfall forecast through August 20, 2020 shows an increased likelihood that the seasonal rains will intensify in the western and northern sectors. August is typically the seasonal peak. As a result, there is an elevated risk of flooding in Yemen, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, western Kenya, and Uganda.