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Author
Dr. Ashleigh Landau is the Research Associate at the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide.
Introduction
The Early Warning Project uses patterns from past instances of mass killing to forecast when and where new mass killing episodes are most likely to happen in the future. Each year we update our list of countries experiencing state- and nonstate-led mass killing. The purpose of tracking onsets and terminations is to inform our annual Statistical Risk Assessment. This report compiles our determinations for new and ongoing mass killings in 2022.
No new mass killing episodes began in 2022, according to the latest review by the Early Warning Project. This good news, however, is tempered by the high number of ongoing mass killings: 20 separate episodes as of the end of 2022 perpetrated by eight states and nine nonstate groups in 14 countries.
Ethiopia—a country that already has two ongoing mass killing episodes—and Mali came close to meeting our criteria for new onsets in 2022. Increasing violence against civilian populations in both countries, discussed below, necessitates greater attention. We also determined that the mass killing perpetrated by Iraqi state security forces has ended.