The duration of disaster displacement: a review of the state of knowledge

Author: Bina Desai
Contributor: Fanny Teppe
With special thanks to: Christelle Cazabat, Maria Teresa Espinosa, Sylvain Ponserre, José María Tárraga Habas
Editing: Tate & Clayburn

Executive summary

The challenge

• Significant numbers of people are displaced for long periods after a disaster event. Data collection, however, usually ends after a few days or weeks, and so reporting on how many people are still displaced is scarce, resulting in weak estimates.
• Beyond the numbers, information on the demographic characteristics and motivations of displaced people over the longer term is also limited, leading to further uncertainties in reporting.
• Mobility patterns result from a complex interplay between people, their aspirations, resources and capabilities, the environment, and the disaster itself. The duration of displacement is therefore mediated by a set of constrained choices faced by displaced people.

Changing context over time

• How long people are displaced is directly linked to how long it takes to rebuild and repair communities, which in turn is associated with the scale of damage, alongside pre- and post-event community conditions, priorities and perceptions.
• The weight of each factor is specific to the given context and differs from one individual or household to another. The relative importance of each of these factors also has a temporal dimension.
• Housing damage may be the dominant factor to begin with, but attachment to place, social capital and economic opportunity gain importance over time.
• The longer rebuilding and repair take and the longer people are displaced, the greater the importance of income and livelihoods in decision-making.
• Financial autonomy and access to resources directly affect the recovery phase, but even after communities have rebuilt, these factors shape return and relocation decisions in different ways over time.

Dimensions and proxies

• In the absence of reported numbers, figures on housing damage and destruction represent a useful proxy for displacement and, combined with data on recovery and reconstruction rates, a key indicator for short- and long-term displacement.
• Critical infrastructure damage is another important proxy for both short-term and longer-term displacement, with short-term displacement shaped by disrupted supply of utilities such as drinking water and electricity and longer-term displacement linked to lack of key services such as education and health.
• Underlying social and economic conditions continue to be recognised as a key factor for mid- to long-term displacement across all hazard types, regardless of the scale of the disaster.
• Evidence suggests that the longer people are displaced, the less likely they are to return to their areas of origin. Employment and income conditions are key factors here, especially as priorities shift from a focus on day-to-day survival in the short term to aspirations of better living standards and professional development in the mid- to long-term.
• The key demographic factors that determine displacement duration are age, race and ethnicity. Of these, age seems to play the most important role. There is very limited understanding of and no conclusive evidence on how gender shapes duration and patterns of displacement.
• It is vital to understand the intersectional vulnerabilities and capabilities of different population groups, as the interaction of sex and gender with other demographic, social and economic factors creates a complex decision-making landscape that affects displacement duration.
• Tenure status and land or housing ownership play a critical role in displaced people’s decisions to return to their area of origin, with renters less likely to return than homeowners, and owners of low-value housing more likely to return than owners of high-value properties. This affects overall recovery trajectories and long-term displacement outcomes.
• Community, social networks and family ties all influence how long people are displaced, and many studies highlight the importance of social capital and attachment to place in long-term recovery. Nonetheless, further analysis of these factors in low-income communities and fragile contexts is needed.
• Access to finance and insurance influence recovery rates and therefore displacement outcomes, with delayed payouts and inadequate insurance coverage prolonging displacement, even in high-income countries. Notably, in a high-income region such as Europe, only a quarter of all losses associated with extreme weather events are covered by insurance; in low-income countries, these rates are much lower.