General situation during July 2020 Forecast until mid-September 2020
Focus shifts to summer breeding areas
Second-generation spring swarms declined in northwest Kenya by mid-July. A few swarms crossed into northeast Uganda while other swarms migrated northwards to Ethiopia to join existing swarms, some of which moved into the northern Ethiopian highlands and northwest Somalia where hopper bands and swarms were already present. Some of the swarms that continued east across northern Somalia could still reach India and Pakistan in early August. Two swarms from Yemen invaded northeast Ethiopia. A few swarms may appear in Sudan and Eritrea where conditions became favourable for summer breeding. Unusually heavy rains fell again in Yemen where hopper bands and swarms continued to form, which is likely to continue. Widespread breeding is also expected in northern and eastern Ethiopia.
Consequently, Ethiopia and Yemen are likely to be the epicentre of summer infestations. In southwest Asia, the situation has nearly returned to normal in Iran but remains serious along the Indo-Pakistan border where monsoon breeding commenced by spring-bred swarms, including those returning from northern India, and substantial hatching and band formation are expected in August. A second generation of summer breeding will start in September. At least one swarm reached Nepal and dispersed. Control operations were in progress in all affected countries. Although the threat to West Africa has nearly subsided for now, summer breeding will cause locust numbers to increase between Mauritania and Chad.