Desert Locust Bulletin 468 (September 2017) [EN/AR]
General Situation during August 2017
Forecast until mid-November 2017
The Desert Locust situation continued to remain calm during September. Despite good rainfall and favourable breeding conditions, very few locusts were detected during surveys in the summer breeding areas of the northern Sahel in West Africa and Sudan, and along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border. In Mauritania, low numbers of adults shifted from the south to the west where small-scale breeding will increase during the forecast period that could extend to areas in Western Sahara where good rains fell after mid-September. Low numbers of adults will move from the interior of Sudan to the winter breeding areas on the Red Sea coast in Sudan where small-scale breeding will occur there as well as on the coasts of Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Eritrea and perhaps southeast Egypt during the forecast period.
Western Region. The situation remained calm during September. Small-scale breeding occurred in northern Niger, western Mauritania and near irrigated farms in the central Sahara of Algeria where preventive control operations treated 34 ha. Isolated adults were seen at more places in western Mauritania compared to August, suggesting that adults were leaving the summer breeding areas in the south of the country as vegetation started to dry out. No locusts were seen in western Mali, and surveys were not undertaken in Chad. During the forecast period, locust numbers will decline further in the summer breeding areas of the northern Sahel. As vegetation dries out, low numbers of adults are likely to concentrate in western Mauritania and extend to the Western Sahara where good rains fell in the second half of September. Small-scale breeding is likely to occur in both areas as well as in parts of southern Algeria. Smaller populations may persist in parts of northern Mali and Niger that remain green.
Central Region. The locust situation remained calm in the region during September where very few locusts were reported. Only low numbers of solitarious adults persisted in the interior of Sudan where it appears that very little breeding occurred this summer despite good rainfall. During the forecast period, low numbers of adults will move from the interior of Sudan to the winter breeding areas along the Red Sea coast in Sudan and breed on a small scale in any areas that receive rainfall. Similar breeding will occur on the Red Sea coast in Yemen where good rains fell throughout September, and to a lesser extent on the Red Sea coast in Saudi Arabia and Eritrea, and perhaps southeast Egypt. Low numbers of adults may also appear on the Gulf of Aden coastal plains in southern Yemen and northwest Somalia and breed on a small scale.
Eastern Region. The locust situation continued to remain calm in the region during September. Only low numbers of locusts persisted in the summer breeding areas of Pakistan near the border with India. No locusts were seen during regular surveys in India. As the monsoon had completely withdrawn from both countries by the end of September, no significant developments are expected during the forecast period. In southeast Iran, scattered mature adults were copulating at one location in the interior but no significant developments are likely.