General Situation during February 2016
Forecast until mid-April 2016
Desert Locust breeding continued during February in northern Mauritania and in adjacent small groups. Ground control operations increased in both areas. Although breeding is likely to continue during the forecast period and cause a further increase in locust numbers and the formation of hopper and adult groups, the situation is expected to remain under control. As temperatures increase, low to moderate numbers of adults could move to spring breeding areas south of the Atlas Mountains in Morocco and Algeria and breed if rainfall occurs. Low numbers of locusts continued to persist in parts of the winter breeding areas along both sides of the Red Sea in Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Breeding will decline in these areas. The situation remained calm in southwest Asia. Small-scale breeding is likely to occur in parts of southeastern Iran.
Western Region. Breeding continued during February in northern Mauritania and in parts of the Western Sahara in southern Morocco, causing small groups of hoppers and adults to form in some places. Ground control operations increased in Morocco (3,345 ha) and Mauritania (1,295 ha). Despite a lack of rainfall, ecological conditions remain favourable for breeding from good rains last autumn. Consequently, locust numbers are likely to increase further and small groups and perhaps a few hopper bands may form in some areas during the forecast period. As temperatures increase, low to moderate numbers of adults may appear along the southern side of the Atlas Mountains in Algeria and Morocco, and breed if rainfall occurs. Elsewhere, the situation remained calm. Low numbers of solitarious hoppers and adults persisted in Tamesna, Niger and there were unconﬁ rmed reports of immature solitarious adults in northern Mali.
Central Region. The situation remained calm during February due to generally poor rainfall and ecological conditions in the winter breeding areas along both sides of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Consequently, only low numbers of solitarious adults were maturing in a few places on the coast in Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Unless further rain falls, breeding will decline and come to an end during the forecast period. The situation remains less clear in the interior of southern Yemen where ecological conditions are expected to be favourable as a result of two cyclones in November. There is a low risk that locusts may be present and breeding. If so, adult groups could form as vegetation dries out and move towards Oman.
Eastern Region. The situation remained calm during February. No locusts were reported in the region. Low numbers of adults are likely to appear in southeast Iran and perhaps southwest Pakistan. Small-scale breeding is likely to occur in the Jaz Murian Basin of Iran in areas of recent rainfall.