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Desert Locust Bulletin 399 (December 2011) [EN/AR]

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General Situation during December 2011
Forecast until mid-February 2012

The Desert Locust situation remained calm during December because of poor rainfall. Only isolated solitarious adults were seen in a few places in the winter breeding areas along both sides of the Red Sea in Sudan, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. During the forecast period, small-scale breeding is likely to take place in some of these areas as well as in eastern Oman. Although this will cause locust numbers to increase slightly, they will remain below threatening levels. In West Africa, small-scale breeding is likely to continue in the Air Mountains in Niger and isolated adults may persist in northwest Mauritania. In South-West Asia, smallscale breeding may commence by mid-February in western Pakistan and southeast Iran if more rains fall. No significant developments are likely in the recession area during the forecast period.

Western Region. Mainly dry conditions prevailed during December and very little rain fell except in Niger where good rains fell at mid-month in the Air Mountains. Small-scale breeding was in progress there and limited breeding is likely to continue during the forecast period. In Mauritania, locust numbers declined in the northwest where only isolated adults persisted in a few places. In Morocco, no locusts were seen south of the Atlas Mountains in the Draa Valley and in the Western Sahara. In Algeria, no locusts were seen during surveys but vegetation was becoming green in parts of the southern Sahara. No significant developments are likely in the region during the forecast period.

Central Region. A few scattered adults were reported during December in the winter breeding areas along the Red Sea coast in Sudan, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. No locusts were seen during surveys carried out in Egypt, northern Somalia and Oman. Light rain fell on the coast in Sudan where ecological conditions were becoming favourable. Favourable conditions were also present along parts of the Red Sea coast in Yemen and along the eastern coast in Oman. During the forecast period, small-scale breeding is likely to occur in these places as well as any other areas that receive rainfall. This will cause locust numbers to increase slightly but remain below threatening levels. No significant developments are likely in the region during the forecast period.

Eastern Region. Dry conditions prevailed throughout the region during December. Isolated solitarious adults were seen at one place on the coast in western Pakistan. If light to moderate showers occur during the forecast period in the spring breeding areas of western Pakistan and southeast Iran, then small scale breeding is likely to take place but locust numbers are expected to remain low and below threatening levels. No significant developments are likely in the region during the forecast period.