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Crop Monitor for Early Warning | No. 99 - November 2024

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Overview: In northern East Africa, heavy rains this season continue to disrupt crop maturation and harvesting for the Meher season in parts of Ethiopia and for the main season in South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen. In the Eastern Horn, delayed seasonal rains are disrupting planting and establishment of second season crops, and dry conditions are forecast to continue in most areas. In West Africa, the main season is nearing completion in all regions, and yield prospects are mostly favourable in non-conflict affected regions despite localized dry spells and flooding impacts in various locations this season. However, a prolonged dry spell is expected to reduce yields in northern Ghana. In the Middle East & North Africa, winter wheat planting is just beginning with some initial concern due to early season dry conditions that are forecast to continue. In Syria, recent and ongoing conflict continue to reduce yield outcomes below the pre-conflict average. In Southern Africa, planting for the 2024/25 main agricultural season is ramping up, and conditions are mostly favourable with good rains expected in the coming months, though forecasts have high uncertainty. Wheat harvesting continues under generally favourable conditions except in Zambia and Zimbabwe where low reservoir levels are impacting irrigation use. In Central & South Asia, harvesting for the 2023/24 wheat season finalized under favourable to exceptional conditions, and planting of winter wheat for the 2024/25 season is just beginning. In southern Southeast Asia, conditions are generally favourable for dry-season rice harvesting. In the north, overly wet conditions from storms and other weather systems continue to cause concern in some countries, though conditions in Thailand and Cambodia were upgraded to favourable as the impact was less than expected. In Central America & the Caribbean, harvesting of Primera season cereals finalized a month behind schedule with generally favourable outcomes, except for small-scale producers and areas in southeastern Guatemala. There is concern for Segunda/Postrera cereal development due to mixed impacts of heavy rains from storms, hot weather, and subsequent pest and disease occurrence.