Overview:
In East Africa, harvesting conditions are mostly poor for main season cereals in the north, and conditions are mixed for planting of second season cereals in the south as above-average rains, which are forecast to continue into early 2024, have resulted in severe flooding (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is wrapping up, and overall conditions remain favourable due to beneficial weather outcomes throughout the season and despite localized flood impacts. Only conflict and socio-economic affected regions are expected to see yield declines. In the Middle East and North Africa, wheat planting continues with rainfall deficits impacting parts of western North Africa. Elsewhere, agro-climatic conditions are generally favourable. In Southern Africa, wheat harvesting is mostly complete under favourable conditions. Planting of main season cereals is continuing under mixed conditions due to delayed rainfall onset, and forecast El Niño-induced dry conditions are likely to impact cropping outcomes in south and central areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13). In Central and South Asia, conditions are mostly favourable for winter wheat planting despite some delays resulting from current dry conditions that are forecast to continue into early December. However, forecast rainfall improvements into early 2024 are expected to benefit this season’s wheat outcomes. In Southeast Asia, conditions are generally favourable for dry-season rice harvesting in the south and wetseason rice harvesting in the north, except in Thailand where early season drought and damage from later heavy rains are likely to impact yields. In Central America & the Caribbean, Segunda/Postrera yields are likely to be affected by antecedent prolonged dry conditions extending into the beginning of the season in September, followed by periods of irregular and above-average rains from October that resulted in flood damage. In Cuba, end of season conditions are favourable.