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Overview
In East Africa, dry conditions are negatively impacting Belg planting in Ethiopia, while an early start to the rainy season is generally benefitting first season planting along the south.
In West Africa, agro-climatic conditions remain favourable for ongoing rice production in Mali and Mauritania. Land preparation is underway for the 2026 main season cereals, and planting will begin in March.
In the Middle East & North Africa, conditions are mixed for wheat development as delayed rains at the start of the season were followed by a shift to recent precipitation improvements across many areas.
In Southern Africa, conditions are mixed for main season cereals, with dry concerns expanding across many areas and successive cyclone impacts in northern Madagascar.
In Central & South Asia, winter wheat continues to develop under favourable conditions. In Kazakhstan, a premature end to dormancy increases the risk of frost damage.
In Southeast Asia, conditions are favourable for wet-season crops in the south and dry-season crops in the north, except in conflict-affected areas of northwestern Cambodia.
In Central America & the Caribbean, conditions are favourable for second season rice in northern Honduras and Apante season beans in Nicaragua. Planting for the Primera season will commence in April.
**EAST AFRICA:**Belg season planting is just beginning in Ethiopia with early season dry concerns. An early start to the rainy season is mostly benefitting first season cereal planting in the south, except in the United Republic of Tanzania. Seasonal forecasts indicate average to above-average rainfall for the March to May 2026 long rains season across most areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6)
WEST AFRICA: Harvesting of both main and second season cereals mostly finalized in January under favourable conditions, except in conflict-affected regions and in Cape Verde. Land preparation is underway for the 2026 main season cereals, and planting will begin in March.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Delayed rains at the beginning of the season negatively impacted wheat planting and crop emergence in parts of Algeria, Libya, Syria, and Iran. Elsewhere, recent rainfall improvements are expected to result in favourable outcomes.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Conditions are mixed for main season cereals. Dry concerns have expanded across Angola, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, eSwatini, and southern Madagascar following a dry spell in February, while northern Madagascar was negatively impacted by the passage of Tropical Cyclones Fytia and Gezani.
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Winter wheat continues to develop under mostly favourable conditions. However, forecast dry and hot conditions this spring elevate risks to rainfed crop production (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13).
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Conditions are generally favourable for wet-season rice and maize in the south and dry-season rice and maize in the north due to conducive weather outcomes, adequate irrigation water availability, and sufficient sunlight. However, conflict in northwestern Cambodia is expected to reduce the national planted area of dry-season rice.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Segunda/Postrera season crops are now out of season, and planting for the Primera season will commence in April. In Cuba, drier than normal conditions and foreign reserve shortages are negatively impacting yield prospects for second season maize and rice crops.
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over eastern Canada, the Mid-West and southern Great Plains in the US, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Venezuela, western Ecuador, Guyana, northern Suriname, northern French Guiana, northwestern Brazil, southwestern Peru, northern Chile, southwestern Bolivia, northwestern Argentina, eastern Spain, southeastern Kenya, central Tanzania, northern Mozambique, central Zambia, southern Malawi, southern Angola, northern Namibia, central Botswana, northern Madagascar, southern and southeastern Kazakhstan, Bhutan, northeastern India, Bangladesh, northern Myanmar, southwestern China, northern Laos, the Philippines, and northern and central Australia.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over the western and southeast United States, central and eastern Brazil, southern Chile, Ireland, the UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Poland, Czechia, northern Switzerland, northern Austria, Slovakia, northern Hungary, Ukraine, southern Greece, southwestern Türkiye, the western Russian Federation, southern Tunisia, northwestern Libya, eastern Saudi Arabia, eastern Oman, eastern Liberia, eastern Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, central and southern Nigeria, Cameroon, southern Chad, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, southern Republic of the Congo, northwestern Angola, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, northwestern Uganda, Ethiopia, southern and northern Somalia, eastern Iran, eastern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, northwestern to southern India, Sri Lanka, western Nepal, western and southeastern China, northeastern Mongolia, southern Japan, northern Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and central Papua New Guinea.