Attachments
CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories. Building on our global conflict tracker, On the Horizon sounds the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge or escalate over the next three to six months in support of global conflict prevention efforts.
Global Overview September 2025
Our monthly conflict tracker highlights seven conflict risks and one resolution opportunity in October.
- Israel killed over 2,500 Palestinians in September in its relentless onslaught in Gaza, as its campaign against Gaza city showed no sign of abating. While a U.S. proposal for Gaza may energise efforts toward a long-awaited ceasefire, the path ahead remains fragile and fraught with dangers.
- Yemen’s Houthis and Israel continued to trade blows, while the group expanded the scope of its maritime attacks and put U.S. oil companies in its crosshairs, which may set the stage for renewed conflict with Washington.
- In Sudan, the battle for El Fasher – North Darfur’s state capital – could be nearing a possible bloody endgame as fighting between the army and Rapid Support Forces surged, threatening to derail a new U.S.-led peace push.
- A military court in the Democratic Republic of Congo sentenced former President Joseph Kabila to death in absentia for allegedly supporting Rwanda-backed M23 rebels; his conviction could undermine diplomatic efforts to address the security situation in the east.
- As the 12 October presidential election in Cameroon neared, Anglophone separatists enforced a lockdown to obstruct voting, threatening further violence around polling day; unrest could also erupt over election results amid widespread disaffection among the youth.
- The U.S. attacked alleged drug vessels near Venezuela’s territorial waters, killing 17 people, escalating tensions with Caracas and raising the possibility of U.S. strikes on Venezuelan soil in the coming weeks.
- Nightly anti-government protests in Georgia’s capital Tbilisi – which had been steadily losing steam – picked up ahead of municipal polls on 4 October, setting up the potential for clashes on and around election day.
CrisisWatch identified twelve deteriorations in September. Notably:
- Dialogue between Iran and the E3 (France, Germany and the UK) failed to defer the restoration of pre-2015 UN sanctions, squandering a chance for a diplomatic breakthrough and compounding the nuclear crisis.
- The government in South Sudan brought criminal charges against First Vice President Riek Machar, escalating the political crisis and threatening further violence at the sub-national level.
- In Mozambique, the Islamic State launched its first assault in 2025 on the strategic port town of Mocímboa da Praia and carried out attacks across a broad swathe of Cabo Delgado province, demonstrating its expanding operational reach.
- Youth-led protests in Madagascar over water and power cuts spiralled into deadly unrest and clashes with the security forces, leaving at least 22 people dead and prompting President Andy Rajoelina to dismiss Prime Minister Christian Ntsay’s government.
- Mass demonstrations in Nepal led by disaffected youth ousted the government of Prime Minister K.P. Oli and met a harsh crackdown that left scores dead.
Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in: Brazil, China-U.S., Jordan, Moldova, Morocco, Nile Waters, Peru, Qatar, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Togo and the United States (Internal).