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CrisisWatch September 2020

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Global Overview

The latest edition of Crisis Group’s monthly conflict tracker highlights deteriorations in September in nine countries and conflict areas as well as improved situations in Somalia, Afghanistan and Libya.

Tensions in the Taiwan Strait spiked amid heightened Chinese military activity and a senior U.S. official’s visit to Taiwan.

In Uganda, political rivalries ran high ahead of the general elections in early 2021, with restrictions on free speech and ruling-party primaries marred by deadly violence.

In Lebanon, the new prime minister-designate resigned after failing to form a government as the country faces deepening political polarisation.

In Colombia, deadly unrest erupted in the capital Bogotá and other cities after a video emerged of police abuse.

Looking ahead to October, CrisisWatch warns of six conflict risks.

Azerbaijani and Armenian authorities called on their local populations to prepare for war after major clashes along the front line in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone left dozens of military personnel killed on both sides in late September. The fighting, which constitutes the severest military escalation since the 1994 ceasefire, could worsen in coming weeks.

In Côte d’Ivoire, pre-electoral tensions rose as the Constitutional Council confirmed President Ouattara’s candidacy but excluded several prominent candidates, creating an explosive climate ahead of the vote scheduled for 31 October.

Meanwhile, both Guinea and Bolivia face high-stake presidential elections which could spark violence around their respective 18 October votes.